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AARP Poll: In N.C. Senate Race, Democrat Cooper Leads, but Older Voters Prefer GOP’s Whatley
The future of Social Security and the rising cost of living top concerns for 50-plus North Carolina voters
8-minute read
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Key takeaways
- North Carolina remains a key battleground state whose election outcome could help determine whether the Republican-held Senate flips.
- Older voters in the Tar Heel State are most concerned about pocketbook matters and the future of Social Security as issues at stake in this year’s election.
- Voters 50-plus are highly motivated to vote, and turnout among independents and those not aligned with one party could be a decisive factor.
- Read the full poll results here.
Older voters in North Carolina may play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the U.S. Senate race, a contest that could affect which party controls the chamber next year, according to a new AARP poll.
Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper faces former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in the contest for retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat. Both candidates swept their primaries earlier this year, teeing up a race between a two-term governor and a politician making his first bid for elected office in his home state.
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Cooper holds an 11-point lead among all North Carolina voters, according to the AARP poll released Sept. 28. Older swing voters, or those who don’t vote straight ticket, fall in Cooper’s camp by a 15-point margin.
However, among voters 50 and older Whatley has a slight advantage: 51 percent support him, compared with 45 percent for Cooper.
AARP (Getty Images)
The AARP poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 likely midterm voters, was conducted by the bipartisan polling team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research.
“Trump won this state by 3 points in 2024, so the fact that you now have a Democrat ahead by double digits in a statewide race just two years later, I think, is pretty notable,” says Matt Hogan, a partner at Impact Research.
It’s a wide lead for Cooper, but the race could still narrow, says Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward.
“Independent voters 50-plus are up for grabs,” he says. “Rarely do you see federal elections in North Carolina finish with double-digit margins for a Democrat.”
In any case, older voters are a decisive bloc, historically casting ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts. In North Carolina, 83 percent of voters 50-plus describe themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote, compared with 66 percent of those younger than 50.
AARP (Getty Images)
“The older voters here in North Carolina are definitely going to turn out,” says Michael Olender, state director of AARP North Carolina. “On top of all the other concerns that older voters have, the additional high cost of gasoline and groceries means that it’s even more important for them to get out and vote.”
So political candidates should pay attention to those concerns about rising prices, as well as others like Social Security and Medicare — all key considerations for older voters in the Tar Heel State as they weigh their options.
What’s at stake in this election
This year’s midterm elections, which take place halfway through a four-year presidential term, could shift the balance of power in Congress. Lawmakers elected this year will make decisions on whether Social Security remains strong, whether family caregivers get more help and other issues that affect the pocketbooks of older Americans.
Control of Congress is also at stake, with all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot. There are currently 218 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as one independent and four vacancies. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents in the Senate.
Older voters heavily influence the direction of elections. In every national election since 2002, people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than younger voters. That particularly matters in a midterm year, which draws a lower turnout across the board, compared with presidential election years.
Pollsters interviewed 1,115 likely North Carolina voters about the Senate race and the issues inspiring them to vote. The AARP-commissioned poll was conducted from Sept. 17 to 20. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
A general malaise and dissatisfaction with the state of the union may be driving voters of all ages to the polls. Nearly two-thirds of North Carolina voters feel the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, with 53 percent of 50-plus voters sharing the same sentiment.
North Carolina also handed President Donald Trump some of the lowest approval ratings Ward and Hogan have seen so far in their polling of other battleground states, including Texas, Michigan and Alaska.
Despite Trump’s win in the state two years ago, his approval rating is 38 percent among all voters, though older voters are split more evenly on their opinions of his job performance: 48 percent of them disapprove and 50 percent approve.
AARP (Getty Images)
Social Security concerns dominate
Pessimism over certain specific issues, and candidates’ proposals to address them, may prove a particularly strong motivator for North Carolina voters, Olender says.
One of those issues is Social Security.
“It really is an issue that candidates from either side of the aisle can engage older voters on and resonate with — left, right and center,” Ward says. “They’re open ears. They’re going to make decisions based on how candidates talk to them.”
When older voters were asked about key matters that will decide their vote, the future of Social Security topped the list, with 83 percent naming it an extremely or very important issue, followed by rising prices and the cost of health care (both at 82 percent) and Medicare (77 percent).
Nearly 1 in 5 North Carolina residents – more than 2 million people – receive Social Security, and voters in the state want candidates to talk about their plans for protecting Social Security. Eighty-four percent of respondents said a candidate who pledged to safeguard this earned benefit from cuts would be more likely to get their vote.
That’s likely a reflection of the fact that 56 percent of voters 50 and older say Social Security is or will be a major part of their income. This figure is even higher among older women and voters 65-plus, at 64 percent and 67 percent, respectively.
“Younger demographics may be talking about housing, the political groups may be talking about cultural issues, but older voters are talking about Social Security because it’s the bedrock of their financial security,” Olender says.
Affordability concerns unite voters
Across demographics and political groups, North Carolina voters worry about their ability to afford basic necessities, like food, gas and medical expenses. More than half of older voters say they’re worried about their personal financial situation, compared with nearly 60 percent for all voters.
Swing voters, who make up about 9 percent of voters 50-plus, are also very focused on pocketbook issues, says Ward. Sixty percent ranked economic concerns at the top of their lists.
Appealing to consumer issues and finding ways to lower costs, especially for those on fixed incomes, will likely be a winning strategy for candidates.
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“That is what this election is about,” Ward says. “Boil it down to just one thing: It’s about high grocery prices and gasoline.”
About a quarter of all voters also cited concerns about rising utility bills, with 69 percent of older voters fearing data centers will drive up their bills. When it comes to how candidates can address this, 4 in 5 North Carolina voters 50-plus want elected officials to ensure residents are not subsidizing the cost of data centers.
“The issue of data centers and the impact they have on utility costs is not just something going on in other parts of the country but here in North Carolina, which typically has enjoyed lower utility rates, compared to the rest of the country,” says Olender.
Health care costs also play into voters’ broader affordability concerns.
About a third of voters 50-plus ranked health care costs high on their list of concerns, with 84 percent indicating they’d support a candidate who expands prescription drug price negotiation through Medicare. About 7 in 10 say the costs of prescription drugs are a high-priority issue.
Reducing the financial burden of caregiving is another issue voters want candidates to address. Over 70 percent of respondents broadly support measures such as tax credits, paid leave and other forms of assistance for caregivers, a group that includes nearly half of North Carolina voters.
“Many family caregivers feel very alone, and they often have to go deep into their pockets in order to provide adequate caregiving for their loved ones,” says Olender. “This is just yet another factor in that economic conversation that will help drive voters to the polls.”
The key takeaways were created with the assistance of generative AI. An AARP editor reviewed and refined the content for accuracy and clarity.
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