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AARP Poll: Talarico Leads in Texas Senate Race, but Older Voters Prefer Paxton
Voters 50-plus feel the weight of rising prices and want action on Social Security
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Key takeaways
- James Talarico leads Ken Paxton among likely Texas voters, but Paxton holds a strong advantage with voters age 50-plus.
- Older Texans are highly motivated to vote. They rank Social Security, health care costs and rising prices among their top concerns.
- Independent and swing voters are focused on affordability issues, making them a key group that could influence statewide races.
- Read the full poll results here.
Texas is not your typical battleground state, but one of the hottest races in the country is unfolding there. In the contest for a U.S. Senate seat that has historically been deep red, Democratic state representative James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, is running against Ken Paxton, the current Republican attorney general. Texas has not had a Democratic senator in office since 1993.
Talarico is in the lead, with 48 percent of all likely voters choosing him, compared with the 44 percent that favor Paxton, according to a new AARP poll released on Sept. 10. But Talarico’s support is strongest among the younger set. Paxton enjoys a comfortable lead among voters 50-plus, where 53 percent support his candidacy compared with the 40 percent that lean toward Talarico.
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This distinction is important because older voters are more likely to vote, and in larger numbers, than other generations. In Texas, 84 percent of voters 50-plus describe themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote, compared with 70 percent of those younger than 50. That means political candidates should pay attention to concerns about rising prices, Social Security and the cost of health care — all key considerations for older voters in the Lone Star State as they weigh their options.
Voters in the gubernatorial race are more pointedly favoring the Republican candidate. Incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott carries a three-point lead among all likely voters over Gina Hinojosa, a Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives. Abbott’s edge widens to 21 points among those 50-plus.
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But these numbers tell only part of the story. Independent voters make up a third of the electorate in Texas. They’re leaning toward Talarico by 22 points and Hinojosa by 11 points. Older swing voters, who are not straight-ticket Republican or Democratic voters, favor Talarico by 21 points and give Abbott a 31-point margin.
“People are trying to figure out which candidate will best represent them on pocketbook issues,” says Lisa Rodriguez, state director of AARP Texas. “Because we’ve been seeing a lot of changes at the pump and the grocery store, people are considering what’s at play.”
Either way, “older voters will show up, and candidates need to know what is on their minds,” she says.
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Fired up and ready to vote
Pollsters interviewed 895 likely Texas voters about the Senate and gubernatorial races and the issues inspiring them to vote. The bipartisan polling team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research conducted the AARP-commissioned poll from August 30 to September 1. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percent.
The Democratic base in Texas is more fired up to vote than the Republican electorate is, according to the AARP poll numbers, but that motivation can only go so far, according to the pollsters.
“Angry voters win, but there are not enough on the Democratic side,” says Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward. “In Texas, you need to win a good chunk of those independents to win as a Democrat.”
The fact that Talarico has consolidated support from nearly half of all likely voters could also be a challenge.
“It’s often tough to get from 48 percent to 50 plus one in Texas,” says John Anzalone, founder of Impact Research. “It’s that last point or two that is always an impediment for Democrats.”
Even though Abbott is leading as he vies for his fourth term as governor, “He’s always had big wins,” Anzalone points out. “The big news is that this is a competitive race almost within the margin of error.”
The poll’s finding that almost half of all likely voters have either never heard of Hinojosa or have no opinion of her also throws uncertainty into the race. This could give Republicans an opportunity to “attack and brand her before she has a chance to brand herself,” Anzalone says.
Or the clean slate could work in her favor. Slightly more voters disapprove of Abbott’s job in office than approve it, while President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater by 11 points in a state that he won by 14 points in 2024.
Either way, “You don’t take anything for granted at the beginning of September,” Anzalone says.
Older Texans rely on Social Security
This year’s midterm elections, which take place halfway through a four-year presidential term, could shift the balance of power in Congress. Lawmakers elected this year will make decisions on whether Social Security remains strong, whether family caregivers get more help and other issues that affect the pocketbooks of older Americans.
Control of Congress is also at stake, with all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot. There are currently 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as one independent and two vacancies. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents in the Senate.
Older voters heavily influence the direction of elections. In every national election since 2002, people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts, according to U.S. Census data. That particularly matters in a midterm year, which draws a lower turnout across the board compared with presidential election years.
Social Security is a pressing concern. Almost 60 percent of Texas voters who are 50 and older say Social Security is a major source of their income, with that number nearing 70 percent for those 65 and older.
When asked about key matters that will decide their vote, Social Security topped the list, with 78 percent of respondents 50-plus naming it a very or somewhat important issue. The cost of health care is a close second, with 77 percent of these voters echoing the same sentiments, followed by rising prices for everyday essentials at 76 percent.
When asked about issues that would make them more or less likely to vote for a candidate, 91 percent of voters 50-plus said they would support a candidate who advocated for workers getting the full Social Security payments they earned.
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Playing to the state’s independent streak
Swing and independent voters — who overlap but are not the same — prioritize pocketbook issues. Concerns over affordability, taxes and Social Security are what rile them up and drive them to the polls. They are less concerned about the partisan issues such as immigration and border security, and threats to democracy, the poll found.
The older swing voter segment, which makes up 15 percent of the 50-plus electorate, “are more than enough to decide any of these races,” Ward says. “They are substantial and by definition persuadable.”
For voters feeling the pinch of rising prices, nearly half name groceries as the main culprit. “It’s a squeeze that everyone is feeling” regardless of income level, Rodriguez says. Almost a third reference the cost of health care.
Two popular and bipartisan economic issues that will resonate with Texas voters are rooted in affordability. Ninety-three percent of voters say it’s important for elected officials to consider the impact on consumers when setting utility rates, while a whopping 96 percent want their leaders to keep property taxes low and the cost of maintaining homes affordable so homeowners can remain in their homes as they age.
Join Our Fight to Make Sure Your Vote Counts
AARP is a nonpartisan organization that never supports or opposes candidates for office. We believe the right to vote is fundamental, and we advocate for policies ensuring that Americans 50 and older can exercise that right without unnecessary barriers. Here’s what you can do to help:
- Learn more about voting in your state this year.
- Pledge to vote for candidates in 2026 who will protect and strengthen Social Security and support family caregivers.
- Sign up to become an AARP activist for the latest news and alerts on issues you care about.
- AARP is your fierce defender on issues that matter to people 50-plus. Become a member or renew your membership today.
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