AARP Poll: Peltola Leads Sullivan in Alaska Senate Race

High costs concern older Alaskans

Older voters’ concerns about affordability are particularly relevant in Alaska, where groceries and other items must be imported, says Teresa Holt, AARP Alaska state director.

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“Many goods must be transported long distances to reach communities across the state,” she says. “Fuel costs are also a major concern.... In many rural communities, residents face additional challenges related to heating costs, making affordability a pressing issue for older Alaskans.”

Those concerns may sway voters as they cast ballots in all races, including for Alaska governor, where there’s a dogfight to succeed Republican Mike Dunleavy, who cannot run for reelection. 

**Results reflect initial poll count. Alaskans use a ranked-choice voting system where ballots are counted in rounds. A candidate wins when they garner at least 50% + 1 vote.

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The initial count shows Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading with 40 percent, followed by three Republicans: Bernadette Wilson (20 percent), Dave Bronson (14 percent) and Treg Taylor (7 percent), according to the AARP poll. Eighteen percent are undecided. Among 50-plus voters, Kreiss-Tomkins is ahead with 39 percent, followed by Wilson (24 percent), Bronson (14 percent) and Taylor (9 percent), with 14 percent undecided. On the last ballot, Kreiss-Tomkins captured 55 percent compared with Wilson’s 45 percent, with the Democrat winning 50-plus voters 51 to 49 percent.

Those aren’t the only important races in Alaska on the Nov. 3 ballot, though. The AARP poll found that GOP Rep. Nick Begich III is ahead of independent Bill Hill and two other challengers in his bid to keep his congressional seat. 

In a ballot initiative that would repeal the state’s ranked-choice voting system, the race is tight, the AARP poll found.

Older Alaskans rely on Social Security

In this year’s midterm elections, the balance of power in Congress is at stake with all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot. Republicans currently control the Senate, but Democrats need to flip four seats to pull ahead. They have targeted Alaska as a pickup opportunity.

Lawmakers elected this year will make decisions on whether Social Security remains strong, family caregivers get more help and other issues that affect the pocketbooks of older Americans.

Both parties should heed the concerns of older voters, who heavily influence the direction of elections. In every national election since 2002, people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts, according to U.S. Census data. That particularly matters in a midterm year, which draws a lower turnout across the board compared with presidential election years. 

That’s even more significant in Alaska, where this is a wide gulf between the state’s oldest voters and its youngest, says Hogan, of Impact Research.

“Fifty-plus voters are nearly two-thirds of the electorate in Alaska, so they’re already a decisive factor,” he says. “The motivation gap suggests they could be an even larger share and potentially even more important this cycle.”

Social Security is a pressing concern. Nearly half of Alaskans 50 and older say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income, according to the poll.

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When asked about key matters that will decide their vote, Social Security topped the list, with 78 percent of respondents 50-plus naming it a very or somewhat important issue. The rising prices of everyday goods such as gas and groceries are a close second, at 77 percent, with the cost of health care registering at 74 percent. 

When asked about issues that would make them more or less likely to vote for a candidate, 90 percent of voters 50-plus said they would support someone who advocated for workers getting their full Social Security payments. The poll also found that 81 percent would be more likely to support a candidate who wants to expand Medicare’s ability to negotiate drug prices to lower costs. 

“In our conversations with older adults across Alaska, we consistently hear that protecting and strengthening Social Security is a top priority,” Holt says. At AARP events last year celebrating the 90th anniversary of Social Security, people “came up and told us, ‘If I didn’t have Social Security, I would be homeless.’ ”

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Pessimism over the way forward

A partisan environment is affecting voters’ views. When it comes to President Trump’s job approval ratings, 45 percent of Alaska voters 18-plus approve and 53 percent disapprove. Among voters 50 and older, 51 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove. Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024. 

Alaska voters told pollsters they feel negatively about the country's direction. Only 37 percent of likely voters across all age groups said the country is on the right track. Older voters were only slightly more optimistic, with 43 percent of those 50-plus saying the country was headed in the right direction. That number was only 25 percent among 50-plus independents. 

That overall pessimism differs from other states that usually show a generational divide, with the oldest voters having the most favorable outlook, says Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward.

“That it is virtually no different between older and younger independents here tells a lot of the story of the political environment,” he says. 

Much of that is driven by affordability issues that are “seeding the discontent and what is taking a plus-13 Trump state and making it a battleground,” Ward says. “Affordability is the number one issue. Independents have higher financial worry. They’re more pessimistic. And so all of these things are tied together to sort of deliver where we are in the election in Alaska right now.”