Social Security Report Projects Trust Fund Shortfall in 2034

New forecast says benefit reduction rate could come a year sooner than previously predicted

Kenneth Terrell,

AARP

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En español

Published June 18, 2025

The trust funds Social Security uses to make sure recipients get their full benefits are projected to run out of money by 2034, according to the Social Security Board of Trustees. That date is one year earlier than the trustees estimated in their report last year.

Once the trust funds are depleted, beneficiaries would receive only 81 cents for every dollar they should be receiving, if federal lawmakers take no action to address the situation.

The trustees’ 2025 annual report, released June 18, cited a law enacted this year as the primary reason why the funds are projected to run out earlier than previously projected. In January, Congress passed the Social Security Fairness Act. That law repealed two policies that had been reducing benefits for 2.8 million people who receive pensions for jobs that exempted them from paying into Social Security during their careers (such as teachers, police officers and firefighters) but who also get Social Security benefits for other jobs where they did have paycheck deductions.

Under the Social Security Fairness Act, those affected got retroactive lump-sum repayments for the amount their benefits were reduced in 2024, plus an increase in their regular benefit going forward.

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Changes in how the trustees evaluate low fertility rates and workers’ compensation as a share of the national gross domestic product also affected Social Security’s finances. Lower fertility rates typically mean fewer future workers pay into the system (absent immigration).

“Congress must act to protect and strengthen the Social Security that Americans have earned and paid into throughout their working lives,” said AARP’s CEO, Dr. Myechia Minter-Jordan. “More than 69 million Americans rely on Social Security today, and as America’s population ages, the stability of this vital program only becomes more important.

“AARP members and older Americans nationwide consistently say that the future of Social Security and Medicare are the issues they care about most, and they stand ready to hold politicians across party lines accountable to strengthen these programs for the long term,” Minter-Jordan said.

How the Social Security trust funds grew

In 1983, Congress passed legislation improving Social Security’s financial security. For the next 40 years, the program collected more money from payroll deductions and other sources than it spent on benefits and administrative costs, allowing Social Security to build up its trust funds.

The growth in the number of retirees, with many of them living longer than previous generations did, eventually tipped the balance in Social Security’s finances. Congress anticipated these workers would eventually draw money from the trust funds in retirement, but factors such as wage inequality and low fertility rates have accelerated the rate at which that money is being spent. In 2021, for the first time more money began going out for benefits and expenses than the revenue that was coming in. Since then, the program has needed to dip into its trust funds to pay recipients the full benefits they are scheduled to receive.

While current payroll taxes cover the bulk of benefit payments to recipients, Social Security uses its trust funds to cover the difference between the revenue it collects in taxes and the amount it owes recipients. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund pot totaled roughly $2.5 trillion at the end of 2024, and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund held $183.2 billion. While the two trust funds legally cannot be combined, advocates use this total to measure the overall health of Social Security’s finances.

The trustees’ report arrives at a moment when many older Americans are concerned about how federal downsizing efforts at the Social Security Administration (SSA) might affect accessing their Social Security benefits. Improving customer service at SSA has long been a priority for AARP, and the organization continues to urge Congress to provide the funding and oversight the agency needs to deliver benefits. AARP members have sent more than 2.1 million direct messages to Congress, and more than 1 million have signed petitions.

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Kenneth Terrell covers employment, age discrimination, work and jobs, careers, and the federal government for AARP. He previously worked for the Education Writers Association and U.S. News & World Report, where he reported on government and politics, business, education, science and technology, and lifestyle news.