Government Shutdown Could Put 2026 COLA Announcement on Hold

Lengthy stoppage would delay release of inflation data that’s key to calculating the Social Security benefit boost

Andy Markowitz and Deirdre Shesgreen,

AARP

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Published October 01, 2025

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The government shutdown that began Oct. 1 will not prevent Social Security recipients from getting their monthly payments, but it might keep them in suspense about how much those payments will increase next year.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) was set to announce the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 on Oct. 15, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is slated to release its report on September inflation.

However, under the shutdown plan for the U.S. Department of Labor, the BLS’s parent, all but one of the bureau’s 2,055 employees have been furloughed. Scheduled releases of economic data, including the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), “will likely be delayed if the lapse is prolonged,” the plan states.

That means the SSA would be lacking the final piece in its annual COLA calculation, which is based on year-on-year changes in consumer prices for July, August and September.

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Social Security payments continue

The shutdown was triggered by Congress’ failure to pass appropriations bills to fund the federal government into the 2026 fiscal year, which began Oct. 1. The duration of the COLA delay will depend on how long it takes lawmakers to resolve the impasse by approving a new budget or passing a stopgap bill, called a continuing resolution, to temporarily maintain government operations at current funding levels.

During the shutdown, the BLS “will suspend data collection, processing and dissemination,” says Stacey Standish, an agency spokesperson. “Once funding is restored, BLS will resume normal operations and notify the public of any changes to the news release schedule.”

The longest previous shutdown was the most recent one, which ran for 35 days: Dec. 22, 2018, to Jan. 25, 2019.

The current shutdown will not interrupt payment of Social Security retirement, survivor and disability benefits. These have a permanent funding source and are not affected by the congressional appropriations process.

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Under the SSA's shutdown plan, about 88 percent of its workforce will remain on the job to maintain essential functions and services, such as paying benefits, processing benefit applications, hearing appeals and issuing Social Security cards.

The SSA also administers Supplemental Security Income (SSI), a safety net benefit for people with very low incomes who are blind, have a disability or are 65 and older. While SSI is paid out of general government revenues, the SSA says it has enough previously appropriated money to continue making SSI payments for the next three months, far longer than any past shutdown.

COLA projected to be around 2.7 percent

The Social Security COLA is based on the consumer price index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures price changes for a selection of goods and services, including food, energy and medical care. The CPI-W is a subset of the main CPI, the “headline” number for tracking inflation. Both are reported monthly by the BLS.

The SSA determines the cost-of-living adjustment by comparing the CPI-W for July, August and September with the figures for those months the previous year. The average differential for the quarter produces the COLA, which is applied to Social Security payments in the following year.

The 2025 COLA was 2.5 percent. Prices are rising at a similar pace this year, with the CPI-W coming in at 2.5 percent in July 2025 and 2.8 percent in August, leading analysts and economists to project the 2026 COLA would be in the vicinity of 2.7 percent.

A 2.7 percent COLA would increase the average benefit for a retired worker — which in August 2025 was $2,008 a month — by about $54. The increase would normally take effect with December’s payments, which for most beneficiaries arrive in January.

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Andy Markowitz is an AARP senior writer and editor covering Social Security and retirement. He is a former editor of the Prague Post and Baltimore City Paper.

Deirdre Shesgreen is an AARP writer and editor covering Social Security. She previously worked as a state news editor for the AARP Bulletin and as a reporter and editor at USA Today, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other publications.