Government Shutdown Pushes Social Security COLA Announcement to Oct. 24

Furloughed employees will return to calculate inflation data key to determining benefit boost

Andy Markowitz and Deirdre Shesgreen,

Updated October 10, 2025

AARP

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Published October 01, 2025

/ Updated October 10, 2025

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The ongoing government shutdown will delay the highly anticipated announcement of Social Security's 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) until Oct. 24, although beneficiaries will still receive the pay bump on time, starting with their January payments.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) was set to announce the COLA on Oct. 15, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was slated to release its report on September inflation — a necessary component for calculating the COLA, which is based on year-on-year changes in consumer prices for July, August and September.

The date was put in doubt when the government partially shut down Oct. 1 amid a congressional budget standoff. Almost all of the BLS’s more than 2,000 employees were furloughed and the agency suspended data collection and processing.

However, the SSA is required by law to announce the COLA before Nov. 1 each year. As a result, BLS is recalling some furloughed staffers to complete the September inflation report, a Trump administration official said.

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The BLS, which typically issues regular updates on employment, inflation and other economic data, announced Oct. 10 that it would release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Oct. 24 so the SSA could meet the COLA deadline but that none of its other releases would be rescheduled or produced “until the resumption of regular government services.”

An SSA spokesperson confirmed that the agency will use the September inflation report “to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment on Oct. 24 as well.”

Social Security payments continue

The shutdown was triggered by Congress’ failure to pass bills to fund the federal government into the 2026 fiscal year, which began Oct. 1. However, it will not interrupt payment of Social Security retirement, survivor and disability benefits. These have a permanent funding source and are not affected by the congressional appropriations process.

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Under the SSA's shutdown plan, about 88 percent of its workforce will remain on the job to maintain essential functions and services, such as paying benefits, processing benefit applications, hearing appeals and issuing Social Security cards.

The SSA also administers Supplemental Security Income (SSI), a safety net benefit for people with very low incomes who are blind, have a disability or are 65 and older. While SSI is paid out of general government revenues, the SSA says it has enough previously appropriated money to continue making SSI payments for the next three months, far longer than any past shutdown.

COLA projected to be around 2.7 percent

The Social Security COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures price changes for a selection of goods and services, including food, energy, and medical care. The CPI-W is a subset of the main CPI, the “headline” number for tracking inflation. Both are usually reported monthly by the BLS.

The SSA determines the cost-of-living adjustment by comparing the CPI-W for July, August and September with the figures for those months the previous year. The average differential for the quarter produces the COLA, which is applied to Social Security payments in the following year.

The 2025 COLA was 2.5 percent. Prices are rising at a similar pace this year, with the CPI-W coming in at 2.5 percent in July 2025 and 2.8 percent in August, leading analysts and economists to project the 2026 COLA would be in the vicinity of 2.7 percent.

A 2.7 percent COLA would increase the average benefit for a retired worker — which in August 2025 was $2,008 a month — by about $54. The increase would normally take effect with December’s payments, which for most beneficiaries arrive in January.

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Andy Markowitz is an AARP senior writer and editor covering Social Security and retirement. He is a former editor of the Prague Post and Baltimore City Paper.

Deirdre Shesgreen is an AARP writer and editor covering Social Security. She previously worked as a state news editor for the AARP Bulletin and as a reporter and editor at USA Today, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other publications.