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7 Ways Older Voters Swayed the Midterms
They came out in force in swing states and voted with economic concerns in mind
7-minute read
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Key takeaways
- Voters 50-plus made up 60 percent of the national electorate and an even larger share in several key states.
- Older independents favored Democrats by 22 points.
- Affordability and Social Security strongly influenced older voters, with older women playing a pivotal role in several races.
Older voters were a crucial piece of the sweeping victories in Tuesday’s midterm elections that saw Democrats regain control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
Six of 10 voters were 50 or older, continuing decades of tradition in which this generation casts ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts. In some key swing states, the influence of older voters provided the boost that Democratic candidates needed to flip seats.
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“Older voters showed up in force, making a difference in battleground races across the country,” said AARP Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer Nancy LeaMond.
As of Friday morning, Democrats are projected to win at least 253 seats in the House and at least 54 seats in the Senate, enough to take control of both chambers. Here are seven ways older voters helped power these results.
1. They came out in force in swing states
Voters 50-plus accounted for 60 percent of the electorate nationally, according to data from the NORC Civic Health & Elections Project, a nonpartisan research center.
Older voter turnout was even stronger in key states such as South Carolina (65 percent of the electorate), Ohio (63 percent of the electorate), Alaska (62 percent of the electorate) and North Carolina (62 percent of the electorate). Those Those voters also accounted for 61 percent of the voting population in Maine and Nebraska.
AARP’s preelection polling, which covered nine battleground states and was conducted mostly by the bipartisan polling team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research, showed high rates of motivation among older voters compared with younger ones. For example, 83 percent of voters 50-plus described themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote, compared with 66 percent of those younger than 50, according to an Oct. 15 AARP poll of 43 battleground congressional districts.
2. Some older voters reversed course from prior races
Nationally, voters 50-plus backed Democrats for the U.S. House by three points (50-47).
The NORC survey also showed wide swings among voters 50 and older in Senate races from the previous 2022 midterms, to favor Democrats. This year, in seven states, older voters swung 13 points or more toward Democratic Senate candidates than in 2022. Those states included Kansas, where older voters moved 29 points toward the Democratic candidate over 2022; South Carolina, where older voters swung 26 points; and Georgia, where older voters shifted 22 points. Even smaller shifts had impact, like a 14-point move by older voters toward Democrats in Ohio and a 13-point swing in Iowa.
Though Democrats didn’t win the majority of older voters in all the swing states, those numbers moved the needle. Voters 50-plus still leaned Republican by three points in Iowa, despite the 13-point pivot toward Democrats compared with the 2022 Senate race. Older male voters favored Republicans nationally by five points.
“The defection of Republicans stands out in a lot of these races where Senate seats flipped, particularly in red states,” says Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward, who analyzed other exit polls that categorized older voters as 45 and older. “You had enough older Republicans voting Democrat that accounted for the margin of victory of Josh Turek in Iowa and Adam Hamilton in Kansas.”
Although more Republicans under the age of 45 broke for Democrats than those 45 and older, “they make up a much smaller piece of the pie,” he says. “It was the older Republicans that provided that heft in delivering the margin of victory of Democrats.”
3. The independents broke for Democrats
Certain segments of older voters were particularly influential, such as those not aligned with a political party. They threw their support behind Democratic candidates by a 22-point margin, according to NORC survey information. Their clout was especially strong in states that determined Democratic control of the Senate. In Georgia, for example, independents 50-plus favored Senator Jon Ossoff, the Democratic candidate, by 66 points. In North Carolina they supported Democratic candidate Roy Cooper by 56 points — a 44-point swing over the last midterm elections in 2022.
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4. Older voters were willing to split their ticket
The reach of ticket-splitting older voters was also felt across the country. Six percent of voters 50 and older in Senate battleground contests chose a Democratic candidate for Senate and a Republican candidate for governor, according to NORC. That number rose to 21 percent in New Hampshire, where a Democrat won the Senate and a Republican won the gubernatorial race, and 12 percent in South Carolina, which saw a similar result.
5. Older Americans reacted to a national affordability crisis
As older voters considered their ballot options, the economy weighed heavily on their minds. Fifty-eight percent of older voters named economic concerns as one of their top issues, according to NORC data. That number rises to 64 percent among women ages 50 to 64.
When asked to be specific about affordability issues, nearly 30 percent of 2026 older voters referenced the cost of groceries, while 24 percent flagged the cost of health care and prescription drugs as their top concern. Only 16 percent of voters under 50 felt as strongly about health care.
“A lot of the agenda items we saw in our AARP polling that are especially important to voters were also evident in the exit polls," says Matt Hogan, a partner at Impact Research. When AARP began commissioning midterm election polls in June, the rising costs of everyday essentials ranked high in voters’ minds, both as issues that worried them and a matter that would decide their vote. The costs of groceries, gas and health care hovered at the top of the list.
It also helps explain why independent voters leaned so heavily toward Democratic candidates, Ward says. “We know from our polling that older independents were the ones who were most economically stressed,” he says.
6. They cast ballots with Social Security in mind
Social Security emerged in AARP’s polling as a major source of many older Americans’ retirement income and an issue that would decide their vote. Ninety percent of voters 50-plus said it was “very important” or “extremely important” for elected officials to prioritize preventing benefit cuts, according to NORC data. The issue loomed over the 2026 midterms, as lawmakers elected this year will decide on Social Security’s future directly.
This sentiment also tracks with AARP’s preelection polling. When older voters in 43 competitive congressional districts were asked about issues that would decide their vote, 83 percent identified Social Security as a key focus. An overwhelming majority — 94 percent — said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who will make sure workers get the Social Security they’ve earned, while 85 percent would favor one who promises to protect Social Security from cuts.
“There are a lot of different things that factor into [economic anxiety], both short- and long-term,” LeaMond said. “It’s everything from everyday challenges like the cost of groceries and gas, health care and the expenses associated with caregiving, as well as ensuring the stability of Social Security.”
7. Women made their voices heard
Women 50-plus played a pivotal role in some Democratic victories. For example, older women in Maine favored Democratic candidate Troy Jackson by six points as he unseated longtime incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins.
Historically, this older female demographic has staunchly supported Collins.
Although Iowa voters 50-plus favored Ashley Hinson, the Republican candidate for Senate, by three points, older women specifically preferred her Democratic challenger Josh Turek, who won the race. Women 50-64 were evenly split, while those 65 and older backed Turek by 10 points, according to NORC data.
Overall, older women supported Democrats by nine points nationally, while older men gave Republicans a five-point advantage. Some of the most prominent swings from red to blue came from women 50 to 64, who shifted by 35 points in Kansas and 28 points in North Carolina. To win their vote in the future, candidates can be cognizant that women 50-plus are generally more worried about financial security than men in the same age bracket. For example, 57 percent in the NORC survey say they cut spending on nonessential items, compared with 46 percent of men. Thirty-four percent of women said the same about spending on essential items, compared with 24 percent of men.
Family caregivers are another group for candidates to watch in future elections. About half of the 50-plus populations surveyed in AARP’s battleground state polls identified as current or former family caregivers. Older women strongly support policies that center on this population, according to NORC data. Sixty percent said that support for unpaid family caregivers is very or extremely important, compared with 44 percent of men.
The key takeaways were created with the assistance of generative AI. An AARP editor reviewed and refined the content for accuracy and clarity.
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