AARP Poll: Ohio Moves Toward Swing State Status, and Older Voters May Tip the Balance

Ohio voters are up for grabs

This year’s midterm elections, which take place halfway through a four-year presidential term, could shift the balance of power in Congress. Lawmakers elected this year will make decisions on whether Social Security remains strong, whether family caregivers get more help and other issues that affect the pocketbooks of older Americans.

Control of Congress is also at stake, with all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot. There are currently 218 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as one independent and four vacancies. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents in the Senate.

Older voters heavily influence the direction of elections. In every national election since 2002 — when citizen voting data by age became available — people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts.

Although this group of voters leans to the right in Ohio — 46 percent identified as straight-ticket Republican in the poll — there are signs that the state as a whole could go in a different direction. President Trump’s net approval rating dropped by 23 points since 2024 to a negative 13 points across all likely voters in Ohio. Almost all Democrats surveyed (96 percent) and about three-quarters of independent voters feel the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 28 percent of Republicans share the sentiment. Democrats also outpace Republicans when it comes to being extremely motivated to vote among all likely voters, the poll found.

“Not only do you have independents and voters overall sour on the president,” says Matt Hogan, a partner at polling firm Impact Research, “but you’ve got a Democratic base that is more fired up than Republicans.”

Retirement worries, rising costs

Rising prices and affordability are top of mind for Ohio voters heading into the Nov. 3 general election. They worry most about groceries, followed by health care, utilities and gasoline.

“Republicans need to reclaim that issue in Ohio if they’re going to be successful,” says Bob Ward, a partner at polling firm Fabrizio Ward.

For older Ohio voters specifically, Social Security, cost of health care and rising prices for everyday essentials are the top issues that could sway their vote as they weigh their options for the midterm elections. “Social Security is not a partisan wedge. It is a baseline expectation,” Carlson says. “Ohio voters want to know where candidates stand on protecting the Social Security they paid into and earned.”

Eighty-four percent of those 50-plus say cost of health care is a key issue in deciding their vote, while 83 percent say the same for Social Security and 80 percent feel that way about the cost of everyday essentials, the poll found.

AARP (Getty Images)

A standout question for voters of all ages is how they will fund their retirement.

More than 7 in 10 Ohio voters are concerned they will not have enough money saved for their later years. Almost three-quarters of all voters across party lines expressed support for a statewide retirement savings program, typically known as work-and-save.

Fears about retirement persist with older voters. When asking about issues their next representative should advocate for on Capitol Hill, 92 percent of older voters gravitate toward candidates who would ensure workers get the full Social Security payments they earned. Nearly half of voters ages 50 to 64, and 61 percent of voters age 65 and older, say Social Security is or will be a major source of income for their household.

“Whether it's work-and-save at the state level or Social Security at the federal level, [retirement security] is the story out of this poll that will allow candidates to connect with voters in Ohio,” Ward says.

Caregiving is another issue that cuts across party lines — and it reaches deeply into Ohio’s 50-plus electorate.

About 1 in 2 older Ohio voters are serving as family caregivers or have done so in the past. Political candidates are likely to face them in every town hall they conduct.

“It presents an opportunity, whether you are a Democratic or Republican campaign, to connect with older voters on an issue that is no small part of their life,” Ward says. “There’s a real opportunity for candidates to get out in front of this issue.”