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AARP Poll: Split Ticket Voting in New Hampshire Makes Older Adults a Decisive Election Factor

Concerns about affordability and retirement security are shaping election decisions of voters 50+

8-minute read

Molly Snow,

AARP

Published October 06, 2026

two hands with each holding a red and blue pencil with an outline of the state of new hampshire

AARP (Getty Images, 2)

Key takeaways

A new AARP poll finds voters are splitting their ballots, leaning Democratic in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race and Republican in the race for governor
Undeclared voters are the largest single group of voters in the state and will also be decisive in the outcome
Concerns about rising costs, health care expenses and the future of Social Security rank among voters’ top priorities
Read the full poll results here.

New Hampshire voters are fiercely independent, and that streak is evident in two key races playing out in this year’s election.

A new AARP poll released Oct. 6 finds voters are leaning toward the Democratic candidate for the open U.S. Senate seat, but the Republican incumbent is ahead in the race for governor. That means many voters are not sticking with one political party for their entire ballot.

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Many ticket-splitters are also older voters; about two-thirds are 50-plus, according to the poll. Older voters could be a decisive factor in the November election, with control of Congress and issues such as affordability and Social Security front and center.

In the Senate race, Republican hopeful John Sununu, who previously served in Congress, faces Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Overall, 51 percent of voters back Pappas, while 44 percent support Sununu. Five percent are either undecided or back another candidate.

AARP (Getty Images)

But the Senate race is tighter when looking at voters 50-plus: 49 percent prefer Democrat Pappas, while 48 percent say they would choose the GOP’s Sununu, the older brother of the state’s former four-term governor. A win for Democrats would help their efforts to flip control of the Senate, while Republicans want to capture the seat to strengthen their control of the chamber.

In the gubernatorial race, Democratic nominee Cinde Warmington, who previously made a run for governor in 2024, is now hoping to unseat incumbent Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is seeking her second term. Overall, Ayotte is favored to keep her governorship, leading 52 percent to Warmington’s 45 percent, with 3 percent of all voters undecided.

Voters 50-plus give Ayotte an even stronger lead: 57 percent of older voters support her compared with 40 percent for Warmington.

AARP (Getty Images)

“The over-50s are making it possible for Gov. Ayotte to win the election,” says Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, which conducted the AARP-commissioned poll from Sept. 28 to 29. The margin of error is 3 percent.

Another influential group in both races is unaffiliated or undeclared voters, who are not straight-ticket Republican or Democratic voters. These voters make up nearly 40 percent of the electorate in New Hampshire, the largest single group, says Christina FitzPatrick, state director of AARP New Hampshire.

These voters give Pappas a stronger lead in the Senate race by about 20 percentage points. But the race for governor among unaffiliated voters is much closer, with Ayotte ahead by five points.

“New Hampshire voters pride themselves on their independence,” FitzPatrick says. “The large group of voters who are not affiliated with either party will play a key role.”

What’s at stake in the 2026 elections

Pollsters interviewed 1,042 likely New Hampshire voters about the Senate and gubernatorial races and the issues inspiring them to vote.

This year’s midterm elections, which take place halfway through a four-year presidential term, could shift the balance of power in Congress. Lawmakers elected this year will shape decisions that directly affect the pocketbooks of older Americans, from protecting the Social Security payments they’ve earned to providing more support for family caregivers.

Control of Congress is at stake, with all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot. There are currently 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as one independent and two vacancies. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents in the Senate. Older voters heavily influence the direction of elections.

In every national election since 2002, people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts, according to U.S. Census data. That matters especially in a midterm year, which draws a lower turnout across the board compared with presidential election years.

new hampshire voter motivation poll results

AARP (Getty Images)

In New Hampshire, 88 percent of voters 50-plus describe themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote, compared with 69 percent of those younger than 50. Enthusiasm is even stronger among those 65 and older, with 9 in 10 “extremely” motivated to cast a ballot, according to the poll. Split-ticket voters are also highly motivated to head to the polls, with 77 percent 50 and older saying they are “extremely” likely to vote.

“They’re the voting bloc we’re going to be watching most,” Levesque says. “This group of voters is going to be a strong factor in the outcome of the midterm elections.”

That means political candidates should pay attention to concerns about rising prices, Social Security and the cost of health care — all key considerations for older voters in the Granite State as they weigh their options.

Older voters count on Social Security

Concerns about retirement are top of mind for voters in New Hampshire. More than two-thirds — 68 percent — of state voters 50-plus say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income, the poll found.

When asked about key matters that will decide their vote, 97 percent of respondents 50 to 64 and 98 percent of those 65-plus say Social Security is an important issue.

Voters overwhelmingly want candidates to address the future of Social Security directly; more than 80 percent of older voters say they’re more likely to support a candidate who pledges to protect Social Security from cuts. More than 90 percent of voters 50-plus say they would also support a candidate who advocated for workers getting the full Social Security payments they earned, according to the AARP poll.

“The 343,000 Granite Staters who rely on Social Security deserve to know how the people they send to Congress will work to develop a solution that preserves and strengthens Social Security,” FitzPatrick says.

Rising costs weigh heavily on N.H. voters

Concerns about affordability and the cost of living are leading voters to the polls. Half of Granite Staters say rising prices are a top issue driving their voting decisions this November. Fifty-seven percent of adults 50-plus say they worry about their finances — a number that rises to 62 percent for voters under 50.

“Older adults in New Hampshire tell us that they’re worried about their own ability to maintain their standard of living and that they are even more concerned about how the rising cost of living is affecting the ability of their kids and grandkids to be financially secure,” FitzPatrick says.

Drilling down into specific costs, older voters say they are most concerned about paying for health care expenses (39 percent), followed by groceries (36 percent) and gasoline (33 percent). Voters are rewarding candidates who promise to lower everyday costs: For example, 86 percent of those 50 to 64 and 92 percent of those over 65 said they were more likely to cast a ballot for a candidate who supports expanding Medicare’s ability to negotiate lower prescription drug prices. Unaffiliated older voters are also mainly concerned about their ability to pay for medical expenses, food and gas. Once again, pocketbook issues are a major driver, Levesque says. Candidates who can convince undeclared voters they will help lower costs are likely to have the strongest path to winning, Levesque says. “If you can get those undecided or undeclared, it’s usually your recipe for victory,” he says.

Join Our Fight to Make Sure Your Vote Counts

AARP is a nonpartisan organization that never supports or opposes candidates for office. We believe the right to vote is fundamental, and we advocate for policies ensuring that Americans 50 and older can exercise that right without unnecessary barriers.

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Molly Snow is a writer for AARP covering advocacy issues and state news. She also writes AARP's Today's Tips podcast. She previously worked at other news outlets, including Federal Times, McClatchy and Gannett.

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