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AARP Poll: Incumbent Susan Collins Trails by Slim Margin in Maine Senate Race
Older voters express frustration with the high cost of gas, groceries and utilities
7-minute read
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Key takeaways
- Maine’s closely contested Senate race could help determine whether the GOP-led chamber flips in November.
- Older Maine residents cite affordability, the future of Social Security and health care costs as top issues motivating them to vote.
- Nearly a quarter of Mainers are at least 65, so older voters will be a significant factor in this fall’s election.
- Read the full poll results here.
Democratic challenger Troy Jackson narrowly leads GOP incumbent Susan Collins in Maine’s pivotal Senate race, according to the latest AARP poll.
The former state Senate president is leading against Collins 50 to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided. But voters 50-plus favor the five-term Republican over the Democratic candidate 53 to 44 percent, a clear edge among a group of voters known for showing up at the polls. Jackson leads by 25 points among voters under 50.
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Eighty-seven percent of voters 50-plus describe themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote, including 89 percent of those 65 and older. Meanwhile, 73 percent of voters younger than 50 say they are extremely motivated, including just 69 percent of those under 35.
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In the race for the open gubernatorial seat, the AARP poll also found Democrat Hannah Pingree comfortably ahead of Republican Robert “Bobby” Charles and Rick Bennett, an independent.
Pingree, Maine’s former House speaker, has 52 percent, while Charles has 39 percent and Bennett 6 percent. Forty-nine percent of 50-plus voters favor the Democrat, compared with 42 percent for Charles and 6 percent for Bennett, the poll found.
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The bipartisan polling team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research interviewed 982 likely Maine voters Sept. 20-22 for the AARP-commissioned poll. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent.
Matt Hogan, a partner at Impact Research, says the partisan gap between both races — with the Democrat leading the gubernatorial race by 13 points but only three points in the Senate contest — is striking.
“I think that is a kind of testament to Collins’ unique appeal and the swingy nature of Maine voters, especially what we see in the 50-plus (voters),” he says.
Affordability concerns continue to drive voter sentiment
In this year’s midterm elections, the balance of power in Congress is at stake, with all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot. Republicans control the Senate, but Democrats need to flip four seats to pull ahead. They have targeted Maine as a pickup opportunity.
Asked about the issues that will factor most into their vote in the midterms, 84 percent of 50-plus voters cited the rising cost of everyday items such as groceries and gas, followed by the future of Social Security (81 percent) and the cost of health care (80 percent).
Those are important issues nationwide but especially in Maine, where 23.5 percent of residents are 65 and older — the highest share among all states, says Noël Bonam, AARP Maine state director.
“When we meet older adults out in the community, they’re very concerned about what’s going on in terms of the rising cost of daily necessities,” he says. “That is also connected to Social Security, because that has to do with income and health care costs.”
It’s not just fuel and food. Utility bills also have emerged as an affordability challenge in Maine, which has some of the nation’s highest average electricity rates. When asked about the issue, 47 percent of voters 50-plus say they have had to “cut back on other essentials” to cover those rising costs.
“One out of two older voters [is] a lot of people,” says Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward.
In the AARP poll, 97 percent of voters 50-plus, many of whom live on a fixed income, say it is important that elected officials work to keep electricity prices affordable.
Bonam says older Maine residents are sometimes forced to ration medications and other staples to pay their energy bills.
“You cannot go without having lights at night. You cannot go without having a warm space or cooking a meal,” he says. “So people are making very tough choices around that.”
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Older Mainers rely on Social Security
Lawmakers elected this year will make decisions on whether Social Security remains strong, family caregivers get more help and other issues that affect the pocketbooks of older Americans.
When it comes to what they want from a candidate for federal office, 93 percent of older voters in Maine say they’d be more likely to back someone who supports “making sure workers get the Social Security they paid into.” In addition, 85 percent say they want someone who will protect Social Security from cuts or adjustments to the retirement age, while another 84 percent cite a candidate’s support to expand Medicare’s authority to negotiate drug prices.
Both parties should heed the concerns of older voters, who heavily influence the direction of elections. In every national election since 2002, people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts, according to U.S. Census data. That particularly matters in a midterm year, which draws a lower turnout across the board compared to presidential election years.
In Maine, 60 percent of voters 50-plus and 72 percent of those 65 and over say Social Security is already or will be a major source of income.
That means political candidates should pay attention to concerns about Social Security, rising prices and the cost of health care — all priorities for older voters in Maine as they weigh their options, the AARP poll shows.
A neck-and-neck Senate race
Jackson never expected to face Collins for her Senate seat, but he became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner withdrew his candidacy in July following sexual assault allegations.
Seeking a sixth term, Collins has been able to maintain relative popularity in a state that voted for Kamala Harris for president by seven points in 2024. That’s despite President Trump’s unpopularity in Maine (his net favorability rating is minus 24) and with roughly two-thirds of all likely voters in the AARP survey saying the country under a Republican administration and a GOP-led Congress is headed in the wrong direction.
Collins is helped by overwhelming support from 50-plus swing voters: those who say they are not voting for one party down the line and care most about affordability, Social Security and health care. She wins 70 percent of those voters, according to the poll.
Ward says that so far, these independent-minded voters are giving Collins credit for her record on Social Security, even though that’s an issue on which Democrats traditionally fare well.
“What we’ve seen in this poll is that neither party is breaking away with it,” he says. “It’s up for grabs whether Susan Collins takes advantage of it or Troy Jackson takes advantage of it. Voters will be listening.”
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