Adults 65-Plus Now Outnumber Kids in 11 States

America’s population is aging significantly, shifting the delicate balance between old and young.

According to a June 26 report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the share of the nation’s population that is age 65 and older grew from 12.4 percent to 18 percent from 2004 to 2024. At the same time, the amount of people under age 18 decreased from 23.2 percent to 21.5 percent.

“Children still outnumber older adults in the United States, despite a decline in births this decade,” Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch, said in a statement about the findings. “However, the gap is narrowing as baby boomers continue to age into their retirement years. In fact, the number of states and counties where older adults outnumber children is on the rise, especially in sparsely populated areas.”

There are now 11 states in which residents age 65 and older outnumber the under-18 group: Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and West Virginia. In 2020, only Florida, Maine and Vermont were in that category.

The age shift is also happening at the local level. From 2020 to 2024, the number of U.S. metro areas with more people age 65-plus than children increased from 58 to 112, the Census Bureau found. That increase means nearly 30 percent of the nation’s 387 metro areas have more older adults than youth.

Overall, in 45 percent of the 3,144 counties the Census examined nationwide, residents age 65-plus outnumber those under 18. 

Why age demographics are shifting

Two factors are boosting older adults’ share of the population. First, people are living longer. From 1960 to 2015, overall life expectancy in the U.S. grew from 69.7 years to 79.4 years, according to one Census Bureau report. The COVID-19 pandemic caused overall life expectancy to dip, but it has now largely recovered; the latest projection is 78.4 years, the National Center for Health Statistics reports.

“The number of years a given individual lives over 65 has been steadily increasing,” says Mindy Marks, an economics professor at Northeastern University. “That’s going to make that group a larger and larger share of any population block.”

At the same time, the nation’s fertility rate — the number of babies born each year to women ages 15 to 44 — has fallen substantially. In 1957, the peak of the baby boom, there were 122.9 births per 1,000 women in that age range, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Last year, there were only 54.6 births.