Voters across 11 key battleground states are divided in their support for President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, according to the results of new AARP battleground state polls. The surveys also show that with control of the U.S. Senate also hanging in the balance, races in a number of very competitive states remain close.
AARP commissioned two sets of public opinion surveys to gauge how likely voters, especially those 50-plus, plan to vote in the presidential and pivotal U.S. Senate races. In addition, battleground-state voters were polled on how Trump has handled the coronavirus crisis, whether they would get a vaccine if one was available, and whether they are worried that operational reductions at the U.S. Postal Service will prevent their votes being counted.
Presidential race in play
Likely voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were asked in the days leading up to and after Labor Day who they would select for president if the election were held then. The results show very tight races in a number of states, particularly those considered key to either Trump or Biden prevailing in the electoral college vote.
For example, in Pennsylvania, Biden is ahead of Trump by 49 percent to 46 percent among all likely voters and ahead 50 percent to 46 percent among voters over age 50. In Florida, Biden leads Trump 48 percent to 46 percent among all voters, while Trump leads Biden 50 percent to 47 percent among the 50-plus electorate. The two candidates are tied at 48 percent in North Carolina among all voters and 50-plus voters. In all those states the presidential race is within the surveys’ margins of error.
A few states show stronger leads for one of the candidates. Trump’s biggest edge came in Montana, where he leads Biden 50 percent to 43 percent among all voters, while Biden has double-digit leads among all voters in Colorado (Biden 50 percent to Trump 40 percent) and Maine (Biden 54 percent to Trump 40 percent).
“To borrow a phrase from Al Pacino in the football film Any Given Sunday, this year’s Presidential race is a game of inches,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer. “The election will be decided in a handful of battleground states, and AARP’s survey results show that either candidate can win. One thing that isn’t in doubt is that 50+ voters will cast the majority of ballots. So, candidates need to address their concerns if they want to get across the goal line.”