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Planning for and living in retirement requires some daunting financial decisions. How do you create a steady stream of income? What’s the best way to split your portfolio between stocks and bonds? When should you start collecting Social Security?
Facing these complex choices, you may be tempted to rely on long-established rules of thumb, such as the 4 percent rule for retirement withdrawals or the 80 percent rule for replacing work income. Follow them, the conventional wisdom goes, and you put yourself in the best position to not outlive your money.
These guidelines may be appealingly simple, but they’re not right for every retiree. A solid retirement strategy requires homework and proper planning based on your personal finances and goals and the broader economic landscape. Understanding when to adhere to popular “rules” and when to break them can help you design a plan that fits your needs.
“All of these rules of thumb provide good starting points,” says Tim Steffen, director of advanced planning at Baird, a private wealth management firm based in Milwaukee. “The only rule I have is to ignore all the rules of thumb.”
Here are seven retirement rules financial advisers and recent research suggest may be ripe for reconsideration and how varying them up might suit your needs.
1. The 4 percent rule
The rule: Take out 4 percent of your savings in your first year of retirement and bump up the dollar amount each year by the inflation rate. Analyzing historical market returns, William Bengen, the financial planner credited with developing the rule in 1994, theorized that this withdrawal rate would get most people through 30 years of retirement without running out of money.
The rethink: “The 4 percent rule is a great starting point since it’s so easy for people to understand,” says Mari Adam, a certified financial planner in Boca Raton, Florida, but it could require tweaking.
One reason is that Bengen’s equation reflected a different investing landscape, assuming a typical retiree portfolio more or less split between stocks (which are more volatile but can bring higher returns) and government bonds (which carry less risk but tend to provide more modest earnings).
Today’s investors have access to savings vehicles with a wider array of asset classes, such as foreign securities and real estate, Steffan says. “With the evolution of mutual funds and ETFs [exchange-traded funds], it’s so much easier to get exposure to other types of investments,” he says, giving savers more options to fine-tune the ratio between risk and returns.
Morningstar researchers who recently re-evaluated the 4 percent rule based on more recent market data peg 3.7 percent as the highest safe starting rate to maintain your savings through a 30-year retirement.
Adam recommends reviewing your withdrawal strategy every year and adjusting it based on market returns, perhaps skipping an inflation increase following a down market.
2. The 80 percent rule
The rule: You should aim for sufficient retirement savings to replace 80 percent of your work income. You’ll be able to maintain the same lifestyle with less money because you’ll no longer have work-related expenses like commuting and contributing to retirement accounts.
The rethink: Steffan says the 80 percent rule “assumes that you’re going to live the exact same lifestyle” throughout retirement. But are you likely to be living the same way at 80 as you were at 65?
“Retirement spending typically follows a cycle, with many retirees spending as much or more in the early years, reducing spending in mid-retirement and perhaps experiencing higher long-term care costs later on,” says Christine Benz, director of personal finance at Morningstar and author of How to Retire.
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