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5 Grocery Items That Will Cost More This Summer
Tariffs, bad weather and rising transportation costs are pushing prices up on these products
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Key takeaways
- Grocery prices are forecast to rise 3.2 percent in 2026, above the 20-year average of 2.6 percent.
- The war in Iran has raised fuel prices. As a result, higher transportation costs are driving up food prices.
- Beef, bread, coffee, nonalcoholic beverages, seafood and some produce are seeing notable price increases.
As you fire up the grill or pack a picnic for the beach, don’t expect to get much of a reprieve at the supermarket this summer. “Grocery prices will likely continue to rise this summer and remain elevated,” says David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University.
Food prices typically tick up from year to year due to inflation. For the past 20 years, the cost of groceries has climbed at an average rate of 2.6 percent. But this year, grocery prices are expected to increase 3.2 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2026 Food Price Outlook.
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A combination of factors is driving up costs. “The war in Iran has pushed up fuel prices, which affects food primarily through higher transportation costs, especially for perishable items,” Ortega says. In addition, adverse weather conditions have hampered production for a variety of fruits and vegetables worldwide, and tariffs continue to raise prices on many imported foods.
Although you won’t see higher prices on everything at the grocery store, you can expect to pay more for these five popular items.
Beef
The mainstays of summer cookouts, hamburgers and steaks, will cost 12 to 14 percent more this year, says Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo’s chief agricultural economist and coauthor of a Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report on summer barbecue food prices. High demand for beef, coupled with a low cattle supply in the U.S. due to drought, has sent prices soaring recently.
Rather than shell out nearly $7 per pound for ground beef, consider substituting pork or chicken, neither of which has seen a significant price increase this year. “If you’re willing to try something new — kebabs, ribs, pulled pork or carnitas — you could take that money and stretch it a lot further,” Swanson says.
Bread
Be prepared to pay more for that bun that goes with your burger or hot dog. White bread prices rose 3.5 percent from May 2025 to May 2026.
Whole wheat bread prices are up 8 percent over last year, says Amelia Finaret, a food economist and associate professor at Allegheny College. Drought conditions in wheat-growing regions of the U.S. have strained supply to the point where America’s wheat production is at its lowest since 1970, according to a June 2026 USDA report.
Coffee and other nonalcoholic beverages
The nearly 20 percent spike in coffee prices over the past year has been the primary driver of higher nonalcoholic beverage prices. But non-caffeinated drinks, such as sparkling waters, kombucha, protein drinks and premium electrolyte drinks, are seeing price hikes, too, Swanson says.
Overall, nonalcoholic beverage prices are expected to increase 5.8 percent this year, according to the USDA. Sticking to chilled tap water might be the smart move to stay hydrated for less this summer.
Fish and seafood
If you’re thinking about incorporating more fish into your diet for omega-3 fatty acids, your pocketbook may feel a squeeze. Fish and seafood prices are up 6.5 percent from a year ago.
Wild-caught fish has faced supply constraints, resulting in price volatility. At the same time, demand for seafood has increased, according to a 2026 Future Market Insights seafood market analysis.
Fresh fruit and vegetables
The USDA predicts fresh fruit prices to increase 1.8 percent this year and fresh vegetable prices to climb 7.8 percent. Extreme weather, higher transportation costs and tariffs are driving up costs, Finaret says.
Specifically, tomato prices have surged more than 40 percent in the past year, in large part because severe winter freezes devastated Florida’s crop. Also, flooding substantially reduced Mexico’s tomato production, Finaret says, and the country provides more than 90 percent of America’s tomato imports.
Not all produce will cost more. Potato prices, for example, have dropped 3 percent over the past year — good news if you like potato salad at your summer cookout.
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