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Will a Sugar Shortage Sour Your Holiday Baking?

If you’re having trouble finding sugar this holiday season, sweet swaps can keep the cookies coming


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Whatever you put in your holiday tins — chocolate caramel turtles, gingerbread or a decadent cake —holiday bakes typically have at least two main ingredients in common: love and sugar.

While the former is in infinite supply — especially during the holiday season — the latter might be harder to come by this year thanks to a global sugar shortage due to climate change. “Consumers may see less sugar or a lack of sugar right before the busy holiday baking season,” says food shortage expert Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University.

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But don’t cancel your cookie exchange just yet. Although it’s true that farmers overseas are producing less sugar, the impact on home bakers in the United States isn’t entirely clear yet. And even if sugar at your local supermarket is scarce, there’s an ample supply of alternative sweeteners with which to keep your holiday baking tradition alive.

Here’s everything you need to know about the possible sugar shortage, including what to substitute if you don’t have any on hand.

Types of sugar that may be affected

Because they’re made from the same sugarcane, Penfield says, all sugars will be impacted, including granulated, brown and powdered sugar.

Less impacted, meanwhile, will be premade candies — things like sprinkles and M&Ms. “Most of that stuff that we’re going to be using for the holiday season has been made already,” Penfield explains. “It’s usually stockpiled in warehouses and distribution centers for the holiday season in the July-August timeframe.”

Penfield recommends shopping as soon as possible if you plan to do holiday baking. “It’s more prudent to try and get your supply now versus waiting, because it will just get worse … with people baking more,” he says.

What to do if you can’t find sugar — or just can’t make it to the store​

If your local supermarket is already bereft of sugar, or you realize at the last minute that you don’t have any, don’t fret. We’ve got you covered.

Sugar you can make at home: You can make your own powdered sugar by combining 1 cup of granulated sugar with 1 tablespoon of cornstarch. Make your own brown sugar by combining 1 cup of granulated sugar with 1 or 2 tablespoons of molasses for light and dark brown sugar, respectively. For both recipes, use a food processor; powdered sugar could take several minutes while brown sugar typically takes just a few pulses.

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Granulated sugar substitutes:  Although you can’t make your own granulated sugar, substitutes are numerous and plentiful.

  • Artificial: While some people complain of an unpleasant aftertaste, artificial sweeteners, like Equal, Splenda and Stevia, can be a good place to start. Make sure you follow the manufacturer’s guidelines for substitutions and be mindful of the sweetener’s state. “If you are replacing granulated sugar, the replacement should also be granular. If a recipe calls for a liquid sweetener, the replacement should be liquid,” says Mika Kinney, cofounder and food blogger at Joy to the Food.

  • Natural: Riz Asad, author of the food blog Chocolates & Chai, prefers natural sweeteners, like honey. “Honey … has a really wonderful flavor without that sickly, overpowered feeling some artificial sweeteners are guilty of,” he says, adding that honey is sweeter than sugar and should therefore be used in smaller amounts. “Opt for about two-thirds the amount of sugar you would have otherwise used. Consider reducing the liquid content of the recipe by about one-third, as honey brings its own moisture.”

If your recipe uses baking soda or baking powder, try maple syrup or agave instead when baking with honey. “Honey is … acidic and reacts with baking soda and baking powder, causing the mixture to over-rise and either overflow or deflate after removing from the oven,” Kinney says. “In most recipes, you can use maple syrup or agave in place of white sugar. The exception is in recipes that rely on whipping sugar with a stabilizer.”

Good substitutes for cookies and cakes are monk fruit sugar for white sugar and coconut sugar for brown sugar, according to Kinney, who says you can typically substitute them at a 1:1 ratio. “Monk fruit sugar is more expensive and can be harder to find. It’s usually found in the baking aisle next to the other sugar alternatives, like Stevia,” she says. “Coconut sugar is readily available now and while it’s more expensive than standard brown sugar, it’s comparable in price to organic or raw cane sugar.”

Fruit options: Lauren Allen, founder of the food blog Tastes Better from Scratch, suggests applesauce or mashed bananas. “Start by swapping out a quarter of the sugar first, adding more next time if the flavor needs a boost,” she says. “For every 1 cup of sugar, replace with a half cup of applesauce or mashed ripe bananas. Be sure to account for the extra moisture by reducing other liquids slightly.” 

Allen also is a fan of date paste. “Simmer pitted dates in water over medium heat until soft, then blend into a smooth paste,” she says. “Use 3⁄4 cup date paste for every 1 cup of sugar. Reduce oven temperature by 25°F since dates promote browning.”

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Pro tip: Pay attention to texture

Of course, sugar doesn’t just add sweetness. It also influences the color, texture and structure of your holiday bakes. So if you’re new to alternative sweeteners, consider starting with a recipe that already uses them, Kinney suggests. A Google search using the term “naturally sweetened” will yield lots of options.

Once you’re familiar with sugar alternatives’ flavor and texture, you can begin experimenting with changes to your favorite recipes. “Try modifying just a couple recipes at first and get familiar with the adjustments needed,” suggests Allen, who says practice makes perfect.

“It can take some trial and error to figure out the right sugar substitute balances,” says Allen. “Don’t get discouraged if your first few attempts don’t come out perfectly. As you gain experience with these new ingredients, you’ll get much better at knowing how to compensate in your baking methods and still create delicious results.”

How much do we need to worry about a sugar shortage?

It depends on who you ask. “There’s still sugar available in markets. It’s just that the amount on shelves isn’t what we’ve normally seen in the past,” Penfield explains.

Due to climate-related production declines in the world’s top sugar exporters – Thailand, India and Brazil — the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predicts that global sugar production will face a shortfall of nearly 4 million tons of sugar.

But Rob Johansson, director of economics and policy analysis at the American Sugar Alliance, a trade group representing American sugarcane and sugar beet producers, says it’s a non-issue. “The USDA actually expects the domestic sugar supply will exceed demand by 3.4 billion pounds of sugar,” he says, adding that Americans get most of their sugar (70-75 percent) from U.S. farmers.

But demand is as much a factor as supply, according to food shortage expert Penfield. “The holiday season is a big time for sugar consumption,” he says. So even if it’s just 25 or 30 percent of sugar coming into the United States that Americans rely on, it may be hard to find at certain times. It also might be more expensive, he adds.

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