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AARP Poll: Older Voters Could Turn the Tides in Battleground Congressional Districts
Election survey of voters in 43 races finds that Democrats have a narrow lead but older voters lean Republican
6-minute read
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Key Takeaways
- Democratic candidates lead by 3 points across 43 battleground districts, a 9-point shift from the 2024 presidential results.
- Eighty-three percent of voters 50 and older are extremely motivated to vote, making their turnout especially consequential.
- More than one-fifth of older voters are persuadable, and affordability is their top concern, followed by Social Security and Medicare.
- Read the full poll results here.
Voters in competitive congressional districts across the country are giving Democratic candidates a 3-point edge in the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives this November, according to an exclusive AARP poll. Whether Democrats can keep that lead may be up to older voters.
This national survey, which covered 43 battleground congressional districts, found that 49 percent of all likely voters prefer the Democratic candidates vying for seats in the Nov. 3 midterms, compared with the 46 percent who would choose the Republican hopeful.
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President Donald Trump won these districts over former Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 points in 2024, so the 3-point lead currently held by Democrats signifies a 9-point swing from the 2024 election. But among voters 50 and older, 53 percent choose the Republican candidates, compared with 43 percent who favor Democrats.
This finding is key because older voters are the likeliest to show up at the polls. Eighty-three percent of these voters describe themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote, compared with 66 percent of those younger than 50, according to the poll, released Oct. 15.
“Older voters will make up the majority of the voters in these elections,” says John Hishta, senior vice president of campaigns at AARP. “It’s important to pay attention to this part of the electorate and speak to their concerns.”
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The bipartisan polling team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research interviewed 1,368 likely voters Oct. 1-5 in 43 congressional districts considered by The Cook Political Report to be toss-ups, lean-Democrat or lean-Republican. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.65 percent.
A pivotal segment of this influential demographic is voters who have not yet made up their minds. Just over one-fifth of the 50-plus electorate are “persuadable” voters, meaning they are undecided or lean toward one camp without being firmly planted within it.
Nearly a quarter of these voters are undecided, and for those who have decided, Republican candidates get the edge by only 1 point. Persuadable voters who are 50 and older favored Trump by a 17-point margin in 2024 but now disapprove of his performance in office by 21 points — a turnaround bigger than that of almost any other group in the survey.
“This highlights how up for grabs these voters are and how critical they could be in determining control of Congress,” says Matt Hogan, a partner at Impact Research.
To win, political candidates should pay attention to concerns that cross the political spectrum, including rising prices, Social Security and the cost of health care — all key considerations for older voters as they weigh their options.
Discontent could drive change
This year’s midterm elections, which take place halfway through a four-year presidential term, could shift the balance of power in Congress. Lawmakers elected this year will make decisions on whether Social Security remains financially strong, whether family caregivers get more help and other issues that affect the pocketbooks of older Americans.
Control of Congress is also at stake, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on the ballot. There are currently 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats in the House, as well as one independent and two vacancies. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents in the Senate.
Older voters heavily influence the direction of elections. In every national election since 2002, people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts, according to U.S. Census data. That particularly matters in a midterm year, which draws a lower turnout across the board than presidential election years.
One factor turning the tide toward Democrats is the sense of discontent in the country. More than 3 in 5 voters say the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction. Fifty-six percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s job as president. But that feeling cuts across party lines: 58 percent of respondents soured on Republican leaders’ performance, while 63 percent felt similarly about Democratic representatives.
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“You can see Democrats in Congress are not at all popular,” Hogan says. “This shift is driven much more by frustration than positive sentiment toward the party.”
On the Republican side, it doesn’t help that younger Republican voters are “in a funk,” says Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward. “They are not as enthusiastic about the party and president as they have been and are economically pressed.”
Protecting Social Security is a priority
Social Security is crucial for older adults. Nearly 6 in 10 voters 50 and older say these earned payments are or will be a major source of income in their household, according to the poll. Seven in 10 voters who are 65-plus report the same.
“There is an overwhelming majority in this country who want Social Security to continue to be around, not just for current recipients but for the future,” Hishta says.
When older voters were asked about issues that will decide their vote in November, 83 percent identified Social Security as a key one, while 80 percent referenced both the cost of health care and rising prices for everyday essentials.
A whopping 94 percent said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who will make sure workers get the Social Security they’ve earned, while 85 percent would favor a candidate who promises to protect Social Security from cuts.
The cost of prescription drugs is another hot issue: 85 percent of older voters would favor a candidate who supports expanding Medicare’s ability to negotiate drug prices.
Pocketbook issues are especially resonant among older persuadable voters, who rank affordability and rising prices as their top concern, followed by Social Security and Medicare.
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“If you have a message on how you will protect Social Security and support family caregivers, voters have open ears,” says Ward, noting that half of voters 50-plus either are or have been family caregivers. “There are lots of ways for candidates to connect with voters and meet them where they are,” especially those who are still persuadable.
Drilling into the topic of affordability reveals other interesting trends.
When AARP began commissioning statewide polls in June, voters specified that the cost of groceries was far and away their biggest concern when it came to rising prices. After Labor Day, and as polling continued, Ward and Hogan noticed the cost of gas steadily creeping up the list. In this poll, the two are almost tied: 43 percent of voters name groceries as one of their two biggest concerns, while 41 percent reference gas.
The cost of health care ranks third, and it is especially close behind gas for voters 65 and older. Hogan points out that this issue has been a major focus in the biggest wave elections over the past two decades.
The cost of health care “remains a critically important issue,” he says. “The cost sensitivity and concern about affordability should absolutely be part of the conversation.”
Join Our Fight to Make Sure Your Vote Counts
AARP is a nonpartisan organization that never supports or opposes candidates for office. We believe the right to vote is fundamental, and we advocate for policies ensuring that Americans 50 and older can exercise that right without unnecessary barriers. Here’s what you can do to help:
- Learn more about voting in your state this year.
- Pledge to vote for candidates in 2026 who will protect and strengthen Social Security and support family caregivers.
- Sign up to become an AARP activist for the latest news and alerts on issues you care about.
- AARP is your fierce defender on issues that matter to people 50-plus. Become a member or renew your membership today.
The key takeaways were created with the assistance of generative AI. An AARP editor reviewed and refined the content for accuracy and clarity.
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