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Are Airlines Prepared for the 2023 Holiday Travel Season?

Southwest and other airlines say they have geared up for the December rush and possible El Niño storms

Passengers at baggage at Nashville International Airport after their flights on Southwest Airlines were cancelled
Passengers wait to claim their baggage at Nashville International Airport in Nashville, Tennessee, after Southwest Airlines canceled flights Dec. 27, 2022.
SETH HERALD / Getty Images
By

Larry Bleiberg,

 
AARP
Published December 11, 2023

This December airlines are promising a gift to passengers: a smoother, easier travel experience than last year.

In 2022, millions of holiday travelers faced days-long flight delays. A severe winter storm dumped snow on airline hubs in Denver and Chicago, but that was just the beginning.

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The disruption led to a crisis for Southwest Airlines, which saw its scheduling system overwhelmed and its planes grounded. It canceled more than 16,700 flights, stranding passengers across the country and misplacing their luggage.

Travel industry experts are optimistic this year will be better.

“Airlines are more prepared this year with backup plans and processes to handle any potential disruptions,” says Rachel Coleman, senior editor at Easy World Travels, a website and trip planning company.

She notes airlines have improved communication with customers to provide timely updates on delays or cancellations. “Also, with the advancement in technology, airlines have better access to weather forecasting, allowing them to make quick and informed decisions.” Still, Coleman notes there are no guarantees, and urges travelers to be “cautious and prepared for any unforeseen events.”

arrival and departure board at BWI showing canceled Southwest flights
Canceled flights were displayed on Dec. 28, 2022, at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport.
Bill Clark / Getty Images

December 2022’s woes

Travelers need only consider 2022 to see what can happen.

“Last year’s storms during Christmas were big, strong and as badly timed as possible. … The key is how airlines managed to minimize it, and what happened after the clouds cleared,” says David Slotnick, senior aviation business reporter at The Points Guy, a consumer travel website.

“Southwest, in particular, struggled as the blizzards hit,” he says. “The airline was caught short-staffed in several critical areas, and some of its crucial systems proved to be antiquated and couldn’t keep up with the airline’s efforts to get back on track. That caused what was effectively a complete meltdown.”

Ten months later, in an October conference call, Southwest Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson was still apologizing: “The disruption we had last winter was really hard on our customers and our employees. It weighs heavily on all of us.”

This year, Southwest vows things will be different. American and United airlines also say they’ve geared up for storms and delays, adding staff and new technology.

But the air travel system will be tested by what the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) says will be a record number of travelers. “We expect this holiday season to be our busiest ever,” TSA Administrator David Pekoske said in a statement. On Nov. 26, the Sunday after Thanksgiving, the agency screened more than 2.9 million air travelers, the most in its history.

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On Dec. 11, AAA projected 7.5 million people will fly during the Christmas and New Year’s travel period from Dec. 23 to Jan. 1. That is a 4.7 percent increase from 2022 and a 2.4 percent increase over 2019, the last Christmas travel season before the pandemic. All told, the auto club expects 115.2 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home during the 10-day period.

El Niño effect

Another factor this year will be El Niño, the cyclical climate pattern caused by warming in the Pacific that can amplify storms across the country.

While forecasting is always tricky, December probably will bring above-average precipitation across the southern tier of the country, says Jacqui Jeras, cohost of Storm Center at the Weather Channel. It could have “significant impacts for travelers this holiday season.”

Paul Pastelok, the lead long-range U.S. forecaster and senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, agrees. “You’ll see bigger systems with a lot of water content,” he says. The West Coast, from southern Oregon to Southern California, may also see more precipitation than average. “San Francisco and Los Angeles, those major airports could have delays.”

December temperatures should be above average in the East Coast. “I can’t rule out delays, but it may not be from snowstorms. It could be more rain, and that could cause delays.”

Southwest’s preparations

The airlines claim they’re ready.

Southwest has rolled out a three-part plan to avoid a repeat of last year’s problems, focusing on winter operations, staff communication and technology investments. The airline has upped its deicing capacity, says airline spokeswoman Laura Swift. New equipment at key airports allows pilots and dispatchers to gauge weather conditions and determine how much time an aircraft has to depart based on when it was deiced. 

Another problem last year was organizational. The airline says a “Winter Operations Playbook” will guide staff as they make decisions about flight cancellations and delays. Texas Monthly magazine reported that the airline ran a series of “war games” this year, stress-testing its operations by having employees work through bad weather scenarios to see how the airline would operate.

Finally, the airline says it has upgraded its communication systems. Last year, outdated technology made it difficult for pilots and flight attendants to get new assignments when their original flights were canceled by weather. The airline also says it has improved its phone system to handle a deluge of calls from passengers.

All these changes should make a difference, Slotnick of The Points Guy says. “Southwest has done some major work to fix last year’s problems.”

Airlines focus on tech systems

Other airlines also have geared up for the holiday season.

American Airlines says it has rolled out new programs to avoid delays. 

“As is so often the case, we have to hope that the weather cooperates, and that we don’t get hit by a perfect storm like we did last year.”

— David Slotnick, senior aviation business reporter at The Points Guy

It says a computer system called Hub Efficiency Analytics Tool has let it keep operations running on time even in severe weather.

This summer it helped the airline modify schedules around severe weather, the airline says. The program “optimizes data about weather, how full our flights are, customer connections, and gate availability, as well as any air traffic control or crew constraints,” the airline notes in a web page describing the program.

Other airlines have rolled out similar initiatives. United Airlines touts an algorithm called Connection Saver, which lets the airline know whether passengers might miss a connection, sometimes allowing it to hold a flight. In October, it said the technology assisted more than 56,000 passengers, making it one of the best months in the airline’s history for avoiding misconnections.

The airline also notes it has added more than 13,000 employees and plans to add 2,000 more by year’s end, including pilots, flight attendants, ramp workers and customer service agents.

Travel editor Coleman says all these improvements will help: “I’m confident this year will be much smoother than the previous year.”

Slotnick agrees — to a point. “Safety is the most important thing at every airline, and in certain conditions, there’s no way to avoid delays,” he says. “As is so often the case, we have to hope that the weather cooperates, and that we don’t get hit by a perfect storm like we did last year.”

Virginia native Larry Bleiberg is president of the Society of American Travel Writers, a frequent contributor to BBC Travel and the creator of CivilRightsTravel.com.​​

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