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How Federal Policy Changes Could Impact Vermonters: New Analysis from AARP Vermont

Laura McDonough,

AARP

Published February 02, 2026

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AARP Vermont is releasing a new, in‑depth analysis on how recent federal policy changes may affect the health, economic stability, and well‑being of Vermonters—particularly older adults and individuals living in rural communities. The findings come from the newly published AARP Vermont - OBBBA Fact Sheet, which examines the projected impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the expiration of enhanced ACA Marketplace premium tax credits.

Developed by Health Management Associates at AARP’s request, this data provides a clear picture of what Vermont may face in the coming years if these changes are implemented.

Major Reductions in Health Coverage

The report projects a significant drop in access to health coverage across the state:

More than 12% of Vermont’s Medicaid enrollment could be lost by 2030, driven largely by new work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks.
The number of uninsured Vermonters is expected to more than double, increasing by 132% between 2025 and 2030. This steep rise is tied to both Medicaid reductions and the end of enhanced Marketplace premium tax credits.
Marketplace coverage is also expected to decline, as individuals lose access to more affordable premiums after 2025.

These changes would disproportionately affect rural Vermonters—many of whom already face greater barriers to care due to provider shortages, transportation limitations, and higher overall health needs.

Economic Ripple Effects Across the State

Beyond the direct impacts on coverage, the fact sheet outlines broader economic consequences Vermont may experience as early as 2026:

A $22 million reduction in federal funding to Vermont following the loss of enhanced premium tax credits.
A $26 million drop in Vermont’s GDP, affecting local businesses and economic activity.
An estimated 200 job losses statewide, linked to reduced federal investment in health coverage.
A decrease of $2 million in state and local tax revenues, further straining local budgets.

These impacts underscore how closely Vermont’s economic health is tied to residents’ access to affordable health coverage.

SNAP Enrollment and State Costs

What This Means for Vermonters

Collectively, the findings present a sobering outlook. Older Vermonters, low‑income households, rural communities, and those managing chronic health conditions stand to feel the greatest effects. Reduced access to care, higher out‑of‑pocket costs, and increased pressure on state and local systems could have lasting consequences for families and communities across Vermont.

AARP Vermont believes policymakers, community partners, and the public deserve clear and timely information to understand these potential impacts and discuss ways to safeguard Vermonters’ health and financial security.

Read the Full Report

You can review the complete analysis here:

AARP Vermont - OBBBA Fact Sheet

AARP Vermont will continue to monitor these developments closely and advocate for policies that support older adults, strengthen economic stability, and keep healthcare affordable and accessible for all Vermonters.

Laura McDonough is a Vermont-based AARP writer and Associate State Director of Communications who covers local news, community livability, caregiving, benefits, and aging policy issues for AARP Vermont.