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Premiums for Medicare Part D Stand-Alone Drug Plans to Rise for Some, Fall for Others in 2027
It’s important to compare your Medicare Advantage and Part D coverage options during Medicare open enrollment
9-minute read
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Key takeaways
- Your 2027 Medicare coverage costs depend on many factors.
- Part D stand-alone coverage will cost more for many.
- Use open enrollment to improve Medicare coverage.
- Subsidy program’s early end could affect Part D costs.
- Medicare Advantage offerings appear robust in 2027.
The average monthly premium for stand-alone Part D drug coverage for people with original Medicare plans will increase less than $1 from $35.09 in 2026 to $36 in 2027, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) says.
But a separate analysis of CMS data on average premiums by KFF, a nonprofit health care research organization, found that Part D stand-alone coverage will be harder to find and more expensive for millions of people in 2027.
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CMS says the average premium for Medicare Advantage (MA), which covers more than half of eligible program enrollees, will fall more than 16 percent, from $14.37 in 2026 to $12 next year.
For MA plans that include prescription drug coverage, CMS says the average monthly Part D premium is projected to fall 38 percent, from $11.32 in 2026 to $7 in 2027, after applying Medicare Advantage rebates that can be used to lower or eliminate Part D premiums.
Your Medicare coverage costs depend on many factors
Whether your MA and Part D premiums are higher or lower than the average rates announced by CMS depends on several factors, including your plan provider, where you live and the coverage options you select.
Coming less than three weeks before the Oct. 15 start of Medicare open enrollment for 2027 coverage, the conflicting findings from KFF and CMS stress the importance for beneficiaries to compare their Medicare Advantage and Part D coverage and choose the best options during the annual sign-up period that runs through December 7.
As of June 2026, about 51 percent of Medicare’s 70.6 million enrollees are covered through private Medicare Advantage plans offered by commercial insurers and other health plans, and about 81 percent are enrolled in Part D coverage. Along with medical coverage, nearly all Medicare Advantage plans cover prescription drugs.
KFF: Part D costs will rise, offerings fall in 2027
In a series of social media posts on X, Juliette Cubanski, vice president and director of the program on medicare policy at KFF, released new information based on CMS data about Medicare Advantage and stand-alone Part D plans. She finds that:
- The number of Part D stand-alone drug plans will drop about 13 percent, from 360 in 2026 to 312 next year. Two plans, HealthSpring Extra and SilverScript Choice, are pulling out of multiple regions. And Humana remains the only insurer offering three plans in all 34 Part D stand-alone regions in the U.S.
- There will be no $0 premium Medicare Part D stand-alone plans available in 2027 for those not enrolled in the Extra Help program for beneficiaries with limited resources. Twenty-eight percent of original Medicare beneficiaries not in the Extra Help program were in a stand-alone Part D plan with $0 premium in 2026. “They will all face higher premiums in 2027,” Cubanski says.
- Centene will offer the lowest premium stand-alone coverage in 2027. Premiums for its two Wellcare plans in many regions will be as low as $5.30 for the Value Script plan or $7.30 for the Classic plan. Value Script currently has 6 million enrollees. “Some will see modest premium increases, others modest reductions,” Cubanski notes.
Even AARP-branded stand-alone Part D plans from UnitedHealthcare that enroll more than 2 million people in 2026 are in line for premium increases next year, Cubanski says.
Use open enrollment to compare Medicare coverage
“The bottom line is that it will pay to shop around” during open enrollment “and look past the premium to assess other benefit changes,” Cubanski says. “Many enrollees will see only modest premium increases” in their current stand-alone Part D plan, “but others will see big jumps.”
Policy observers had projected that Part D premiums for stand-alone plans would face strong upward pressure in 2027 due to rising drug prices, a more generous Part D benefit thanks to a 2022 prescription drug law, and beneficiaries’ growing use of costly GLP-1 medications for diabetes, sleep apnea and cardiovascular disease.
The prescription drug provisions of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which were strongly supported by AARP, improved coverage for enrollees but increased costs for insurers. The law dramatically lowered beneficiary spending for prescription drugs and shifted more of those costs to Medicare and the drug plans. This helps millions of enrollees avoid possible life-altering prescription drug costs when facing chronic health problems or serious illness.
The law also capped enrollees’ total Part D out-of-pocket spending at $2,000 in 2025, $2,100 in 2026 and $2,400 in 2027 compared to no limit in 2024. When enrollees in stand-alone plans or Medicare Advantage plans with drug coverage reach the new out-of-pocket spending cap, they don’t have to pay anything more for the rest of the year.
Program’s early end could affect 2027 Part D costs
Another possible factor in projected Part D premium hikes: CMS is discontinuing a three-year pilot program designed to keep stand-alone premiums in check. The program paid $9.8 billion in subsidies to Part D stand-alone plans in 2025 and 2026, which helped lower premiums both years as the plans transitioned to new consumer-friendly provisions in the 2022 law that were expected to boost premiums.
KFF and others said CMS’s decision in July to end the subsidy program after only two years could cause stand-alone premiums to rise in 2027.
But CMS administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz said at the time that the subsidy program was an insurance industry bailout, a flawed response to the 2022 drug law, and that stand-alone plans have had enough time to adjust to the law’s changes.
Oz repeats part of that assertion in CMS’s Sept. 28 announcement of average Medicare Advantage and Part D premiums for 2027.
“By slashing handouts to big insurance companies, CMS is keeping premiums stable while ensuring that 97 percent of Medicare beneficiaries have access to 10 or more Medicare Advantage plans and that 93 percent of non-low-income beneficiaries can get an enhanced Part D plan for less than $6 a month,” Oz says.
CMS also says 88 percent of beneficiaries who do not have low incomes will have access to a basic Part D plan for $10.30 per month or less.
But Cubanski notes that the CMS data doesn’t “tell us anything about plan changes underneath the hood to control costs. Are plans dropping drugs from formularies, increasing copays, moving to coinsurance, etc.? These features affect patient cost and access as much as (if not more than) premiums,” she notes online.
Medicare Advantage offerings appear robust in 2027
CMS expects 34 million people to enroll in Medicare Advantage next year, or just over 47 percent of Medicare enrollees. But projections have historically underestimated actual enrollment, and CMS expects MA enrollment to “be more robust than current plan projections indicate.”
Almost all Medicare beneficiaries will be able to access at least one MA plan next year, and 97 percent will have access to 10 or more, CMS says.
Nationally, 5,532 MA plans will be offered next year, 21 less than the 5,553 offered in 2026. CMS expects roughly 80 percent of Medicare Advantage plan members to be able to remain in their current plan with the same or a lower premium in 2027.
Beneficiaries should compare coverage options
Part D and Medicare Advantage plans can make coverage changes that affect your drug costs, so comparing plans during open enrollment is important.
Available stand-alone Part D plans can vary by geographic region, and the United States has been divided into 34 regions that cover all states and the District of Columbia. The Medicare Plan Finder allows you to identify all the coverage options in your area and compare Medicare Advantage and Part D plans, experts say.
In addition, counselors with your local State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) can provide a list of Part D and MA plans available to you.
If you plan to use a Medicare agent or broker to help select coverage, understand that they aren’t required to inform you of all your coverage options, and they receive enrollment-based commissions and bonuses from insurers they represent. This could affect their advice and coverage recommendations.
During open enrollment, consumers can call 1-800-MEDICARE 24 hours a day, seven days a week for help comparing plans and costs.
Eligible older adults with limited incomes and assets and people with disabilities may qualify for financial assistance with premiums, deductibles, coinsurance and copayments from state Medicare Savings Programs (MSPs).
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