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AARP Poll: Older Arizona Voters Pivotal in Tight Races
Many rely on Social Security and feel the pinch of rising prices
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Key takeaways
- AARP’s Arizona poll finds that voters age 50-plus could play a decisive role in the governor’s and attorney general’s races because they are more likely to vote and make up a large share of the electorate.
- Older voters back Republican candidates by wider margins than the overall electorate in both the gubernatorial and attorney general contests.
- Social Security, rising prices, health care costs and utility bills rank among the top issues shaping how older Arizona voters cast their ballots.
- Read the full poll results here.
Arizona voters age 50 and older could be decisive in tight contests for governor and attorney general in November’s midterm election, according to a new AARP poll.
The power of a single vote was evident in the 2022 face-off for Arizona attorney general, in which Democrat Kris Mayes beat her Republican opponent by a few hundred votes. With Mayes up for reelection, 48 percent of all likely voters support her candidacy, compared with 43 percent for Republican Warren Petersen. But among those 50-plus, Petersen leads Mayes by 10 points, according to the AARP poll released on Aug. 6.
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A similar pattern emerges in the gubernatorial race. Fifty-two percent of all likely voters surveyed favor the incumbent, Democrat Katie Hobbs, while 44 percent would choose the Republican nominee, House Rep. Andy Biggs. But Biggs holds a nine-point lead among voters 50-plus.
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Those generational preferences could be key in a state already known for close races, as older Americans tend to vote in larger numbers than do younger cohorts. In Arizona, 85 percent of voters 50-plus describe themselves as “extremely” motivated to cast a ballot, compared with 65 percent of those younger than 50.
That means political candidates need to pay attention to concerns about rising prices, Social Security and Medicare — all key considerations for older voters in Arizona as they weigh their options in November.
“When you put those numbers together with historical trends, you're getting a recipe that says older Arizonans will come out and vote this year,” says Brendon Blake, advocacy director at AARP Arizona.
Pollsters interviewed 913 likely Arizona voters about the attorney general and gubernatorial races and the issues motivating them to vote. The bipartisan polling team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research conducted the AARP-commissioned poll from July 26 to July 28.
Based on past election data in Arizona, the two firms expect that voters age 50-plus will make up 62 percent of the electorate in the November midterms, and the generational disparity in intent to vote could increase that share.
“That makes older voters even more pivotal,” says Matt Hogan, a partner at Impact Research. “It’s possible two out of every three voters in Arizona could be 50-plus.”
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Winning voters who could go either way
Nearly half of older Arizona voters are straight-ticket Republicans, while 39 percent are die-hard Democrats. But 13 percent of voters 50-plus are swing voters, and this year they are focused on economic worries, says Bob Ward, a partner at Fabrizio Ward.
“Whereas reliable Republican voters prioritize things like immigration and reliable Democratic voters prioritize things like threats to democracy, these swing voters are very dialed in to their personal finance situation,” he says. “If you are trying to woo these voters — and there are a lot to be wooed — you better be talking about how you will make their economic situation safer.”
Nearly three-quarters of these swing voters are concerned about having enough savings for retirement. Sixty percent are worried about personal finances.
Creating a state-facilitated retirement option is one way forward that could resonate with voters across the political spectrum. Nearly two dozen states have established work-and-save programs to help people who don’t have access to a workplace retirement plan like a 401(k) to save for retirement. More than three-quarters of Arizona voters 50-plus want their state to follow suit.
Reining in utility costs is also a hot topic. Two out of five seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission, the body responsible for setting utility rates in the state, are up for grabs in November. Four in five older voters want the commission to consider consumer affordability and financial hardship when calculating costs.
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Social Security a major concern
This year’s midterm elections, which take place halfway through a four-year presidential term, could shift the balance of power in Congress. Lawmakers elected this year will make decisions on whether Social Security remains strong, whether family caregivers get more help and other issues that affect the pocketbooks of older Americans.
Control of Congress is at stake, with all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot. There are currently 218 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as one independent and four vacancies. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents in the Senate.
In every national election since 2002, people 65 and older have cast ballots at higher rates than their younger counterparts. Their influence is particularly strong in midterm years, which draw a lower turnout across the board than presidential election years.
In 2026, candidates who promise to protect Social Security from cuts could strike a chord with this segment. Nearly two-thirds of older voters worry about not having enough money saved for retirement, and 56 percent expect Social Security to be a major source of their income. When asked about key issues that will decide their vote, Social Security topped the list, with 83 percent of older voters naming the program as extremely or very important to them. Rising prices for everyday essentials, such as groceries and gas, also rank high, along with the cost of health care and rising prices for utilities.
“Most people see Social Security as a backbone to their retirement plan,” Blake says.
Policies relating to Medicare also resonate with older Arizona voters. For example, 87 percent of those polled say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who would expand Medicare’s ability to negotiate drug prices to help lower the costs of prescription drugs.
Join Our Fight to Make Sure Your Vote Counts
AARP is a nonpartisan organization that never supports or opposes candidates for office. We believe the right to vote is fundamental, and we advocate for policies ensuring that Americans 50 and older can exercise that right without unnecessary barriers. Here’s what you can do to help:
- Learn more about voting in your state this year.
- Pledge to vote for candidates in 2026 who will protect and strengthen Social Security and support family caregivers.
- Sign up to become an AARP activist for the latest news and alerts on issues you care about.
- AARP is your fierce defender on issues that matter to people 50-plus. Become a member or renew your membership today.
The key takeaways were created with the assistance of generative AI. An AARP editor reviewed and refined the content for accuracy and clarity.
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