New AARP Alaska Poll: Older Voters Will be Influential in U.S. Senate, Gubernatorial and Congressional Races

WASHINGTON – Today, AARP released new polling underscoring the outsized role that Alaska voters 50 and older will play in the state’s tight gubernatorial, congressional and Senate races in November -- and the issues that they will have top-of-mind while casting their votes.  
 
Older voters are highly engaged and motivated to turn out at the polls: nearly nine in 10 (87%) voters 50+ rated themselves a "10" on a 10-point motivation-to-vote scale, compared with 62% of voters under 50. Older swing voters make up nearly 15% of the Alaskan electorate and roughly half of swing voters statewide, highlighting their potential to have a decisive impact on both closely watched races.  
 
“Voters age 50 and older are the most decisive voting bloc in American elections, and our data confirms that Alaska’s races will be no different,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy Officer. “Older voters are struggling with rising prices and concerned about issues like Social Security and Medicare. Candidates looking to secure their vote must be able to speak to these issues and set forward a clear vision for protecting older Alaskans’ retirement security and financial futures.”  
 

With Ranked Choice Voting, Alaskan voters rank as many or as few candidates as they choose among the top four candidates who qualified for the general election. 

 
In the race for Senate, Democrat Mary Peltola leads among all likely voters, polling at 46%, followed by incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan with 41%. Candidates Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Republican Gerald Heikes follow at 4% and 3%, respectively. Among voters 50+, however, S. Sullivan holds a 7-point lead over Peltola (49% - 42%), with J. Sullivan and Heikes following at 3% and 2%. Swing voters 50+ favor Peltola over S. Sullivan 36%-33%. 
 

In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds the lead, polling at 40%, followed by Republican Bernadette Wilson at 20%, Republican Dave Bronson at 14%, and Republican Treg Taylor at 7%. Among voters 50+, the candidates fall into the same ranking, with Kreiss-Tomkins holding 39% of the vote, Wilson at 24%, Bronson at 14%, and Taylor at 8%. Among swing voters 50+, 25% favor Kreiss-Tomkins, 18% favor Bronson, 12% favor Wilson, and 8% favor Taylor.  
 
In the race for Congress, Republican Incumbent Nick Begich leads Independent Bill Hill 45% to 31%, with 9% picking Democrat Eric Hafner, 3% favoring Libertarian James McDermott and 11% undecided. Begich’s lead is driven by voters 50+, among whom he leads Hill by 22-points.  
 

“With a crowded electoral field in Alaska’s elections, it’s more important than ever that candidates choose messaging that resonates with voters, especially older Alaskans," said AARP Alaska State Director Teresa Holt. "Alaskans age 50 and older are focused on the issues affecting their everyday budgets, including rising prices for essentials like groceries, gas, and health care. They are looking for leaders who will listen to their concerns and put forward practical solutions that help them maintain their independence and quality of life as they age."  

 
AARP’s polling found that affordability is the top issue for voters 50+, followed by threats to democracy and taxes, government spending, and debt. 

Among voters age 50+:

• 78% say Social Security is an important issue when deciding their vote, and 90% are more likely to support a candidate who will make sure workers receive the Social Security benefits they earned. 
• 70% say Medicare is an important voting issue, and 81% are more likely to support a candidate who would expand Medicare's ability to negotiate prescription drug prices.
• 78% support creating a public-private partnership retirement savings program for Alaskan workers without access to one.
• 68% favor restoring state pension benefits for public safety workers, teachers, and other public employees.