New AARP Arizona Poll: Close Governor’s Race Could Hinge on Older Voters

WASHINGTON – Today, AARP released new polling showing that Arizona’s highly engaged older voters could play a decisive role in the tight race for state governor this November, with issues including affordability, strengthening retirement security, keeping utility rates manageable and increasing transparency in long-term care facilities top of mind for these voters at the ballot box.  

Voters age 50+ accounted for 64% of the electorate in the last midterm election (2022), and AARP’s new survey found that this high level of engagement continues: 85% of voters 50+ rated themselves a "10" on a 10-point motivation-to-vote scale, compared with 65% of voters under 50. Swing voters make up 16% of Arizona's electorate, and half of them (8% of the overall electorate) are age 50+. Overall, the survey found that roughly one in eight Arizona voters 50+ are swing voters, underscoring their outsized role in one of the nation's most competitive midterm battlegrounds.  

“Arizona’s older voters are a critical voting bloc that both gubernatorial candidates should be competing for in the lead-up to this year’s election,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy Officer. “Voters 50 and over are highly engaged and consistently turn out at the polls at outsized rates. In a race this close, candidates who speak to the issues older voters care about –from rising prices to protecting Social Security and Medicare – could pull into the lead.”

In the close governor’s race, Katie Hobbs leads Andy Biggs among all voters (52% to 44%), while Andy Biggs leads among voters 50+ by nine points (53% to 44%). Hobbs’s lead is driven by voters under 50, particularly those 18-34 who prefer her by a sizable 54-point margin.

• “Arizonans over 50 are a vital demographic for this year’s candidates, and they’re looking for leaders who understand the cost pressures they're facing every day," said Brendon Blake, AARP Arizona Director of Advocacy. "From the cost of groceries and housing to health care and utility bills, voters want practical solutions that protect their financial security and support aging independently.”
  
  AARP’s polling found that swing voters 50+ are deeply concerned about retirement security, ranking it as one of the top four issues driving them to the polls. The survey also found that among voters over 50:
  
  
• 78% favor creating a retirement savings program for Arizonans without access to one.
• 80% support requiring the Arizona Corporation Commission to consider consumer affordability and financial hardship when setting utility rates.
•  3-in-4 Arizonans support giving families the right to monitor care electronically in long-term care facilities.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct the survey of likely Arizona voters. This is the third poll in AARP's 2026 battleground polling series, following surveys of Ohio and Georgia. The firms interviewed 913 likely voters statewide. The survey was done between July 26 -28, 2026. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on cell phone (40%) and landline (15%), as well as SMS-to-web (45%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Arizona voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 913 statewide sample is ±3.2%.

View the full survey results at www.aarp.org/az2026voterpoll and more information on our poll at www.aarp.org/AZpoll. Additional information about AARP’s 2026 battleground polling series is available at www.aarp.org/voterpolls2026.

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