When Can We Expect New COVID Vaccines?

COVID-19 cases are climbing, and many are wondering when we’ll see an updated batch of vaccines

Rachel Nania,

AARP

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Published August 20, 2025

AARP (Getty Images)

Summer is winding down, but COVID-19 activity is heating up, with cases and hospitalizations growing in most states, the latest federal data shows.

This late-summer surge is not unusual, public health experts say, and it’s important to keep in mind that COVID-19 cases are still lower than previous pandemic peaks.

“We’ve really been observing for the past several years that COVID seems to have two waves per year,” says Gavin Harris, M.D., an assistant professor in the Department of Medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Emory University School of Medicine.

“There’s the classic, traditional respiratory viral season in late fall and throughout the winter, and then COVID seems to also recur in the late summer months,” Harris said.

This year’s late-summer wave, however, comes at a time when many are wondering when updated vaccines will be available and who will be eligible to get them.

Here’s what we know so far about the virus and the vaccines as we head into 2025’s respiratory illness season.

What version of COVID is behind the summer surge?

A variant known as XFG, also nicknamed “Stratus,” is the dominant coronavirus strain currently circulating in the U.S., according to wastewater data collected by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It has surpassed NB.1.8.1, which was the most common variant circulating at the beginning of the summer.

According to the World Health Organization, XFG is a hybrid variant of two omicron strains, LF.7 and LP.8.1.2. Harris says the symptoms it causes are similar to those of its predecessors. An infection from this strain can bring fever, chills and respiratory complaints (sore throat, cough, etc.).

Are manufacturers updating the COVID vaccines for the fall?

Yes. Earlier this year, the Food and Drug Administration advised vaccine manufacturers to update their formulas for the 2025-2026 respiratory virus season to target the JN.1 lineage of the omicron variant, preferentially using the LP.8.1 strain.

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Updating the vaccine means it will more closely match the variants of the coronavirus currently circulating and causing infections. Last year’s COVID vaccine was updated to target the KP.2 strain (also from the JN.1 lineage), which is no longer in circulation in the U.S.

William Schaffner, M.D., a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Nashville, Tennessee’s Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, says the newly reformulated vaccines for 2025-2026 are expected to provide good protection against the virus for the upcoming respiratory illness season.

A key reason: “All the currently circulating variants are children, if you will, of the omicron strain,” he says. The updated vaccines “should cover the strains that are circulating now and that we anticipate will be circulating this winter.”

Keep in mind that the vaccines are best at preventing severe disease that leads to hospitalizations, and not necessarily infections, Schaffner adds.

“So we can still get milder illnesses, but particularly for people in high-risk groups, it’s very important to be vaccinated, because high-risk people are those who are at risk of getting more severe disease and requiring hospitalization, and that’s exactly what it is that the vaccines are designed to prevent,” he explains.

Older adults are at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19. People 65 and older have accounted for roughly 94 percent of COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic. Also at increased risk are individuals with underlying health conditions, such as asthma, heart disease, lung disease, diabetes, obesity, cancer and many more.

When will the COVID-19 vaccines be available?

Public health experts expect the vaccines to be available in the fall, as in previous years, though an exact date is unknown.

Schaffner says a mid- to late-September launch is “entirely appropriate,” because you don’t want to get the vaccine too far ahead of the typical winter peak.

“You want that protection to last throughout the entire winter season,” he says.

Last winter’s peak of COVID-19 hospitalizations was in early January, according to CDC data.

Who will be able to get an updated COVID vaccine?

“It’s a little bit challenging to fully predict the vaccine landscape, even in the next few months,” Harris says.

In previous years, the COVID-19 vaccine has been available to most people ages 6 months and older. However, CDC guidelines were adjusted in May and currently say that the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine is recommended for most adults ages 18 and older, and that children and their parents can get one after a discussion with their health care provider, a process known as shared clinical decision-making.

While nothing is official yet, recommendations for the 2025-2026 COVID vaccine may be limited to older adults and individuals with underlying health conditions that put them at higher risk for severe illness from a coronavirus infection. In May, FDA vaccines chief Vinay Prasad, M.D., and FDA Commissioner Martin Makary, M.D., published an article in The New England Journal of Medicine proposing this new change.

It’s possible that professional medical groups will develop their own vaccine recommendations that cast a wider net than government recommendations. On Aug. 19, for example, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) released its immunization guidance for routine vaccines, including the COVID-19 vaccine. The group is recommending the 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine for children ages 6 months to 2 years and older children whose parents want them vaccinated.

A recent AAP analysis found that children ages 0 to 4 accounted for 58 percent of the confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions from January 2022 to April 2024.

How differing recommendations will affect insurance coverage is not yet known.

What can I do to protect myself from COVID-19?

Even if you received a spring or summer dose of the COVID vaccine — which the CDC recommended for adults 65 and older and immunocompromised individuals — consider wearing a mask when participating in indoor activities or events where there are lots of other people, in light of the rising cases, Schaffner says. (Wondering if you should get that second dose now, before the new vaccine is released? Talk to your doctor for guidance.)

“And if you’re really in a high-risk group, you might think about streaming a movie rather than going to the movie,” Schaffner adds.

Another tip: While you’re thinking about scheduling your updated COVID vaccine, make plans to get your updated flu shot too. Annual influenza vaccines should be in doctors’ offices and pharmacies soon, and the CDC says the best time to get vaccinated against the flu is in September or October.

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