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COVID Cases Are Climbing Again: What You Need to Know
Experts say a few familiar precautions can help reduce your risk during the late-summer surge
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Key takeaways
- COVID-19 cases are rising in many parts of the U.S., continuing a pattern of summer and winter spikes seen in recent years.
- Updated COVID vaccines are expected this fall, and public health experts say most people can benefit from getting one.
- Wearing a mask in crowded indoor spaces, testing when symptoms develop and knowing where to get antiviral treatments can help reduce risk.
Summer may be winding down, but COVID-19 activity is picking up. Cases are increasing in many parts of the U.S., especially the South and West, according to tracking data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
This late-summer uptick isn’t shocking, says Jodie Guest, senior vice chair of the epidemiology department at Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health. It’s part of a pattern that has played out every year since the virus emerged.
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While flu cases tend to spike once a year in the winter, COVID activity peaks twice a year, in the winter and summer, and experts say the reason isn’t clear.
“That’s one of the big mysteries, particularly with respiratory viruses,” says Andrew Pekosz, professor and vice chair of the W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “We sort of see these [different] patterns with different viruses.”
And though the current spike in new cases is smaller than past ones, Guest says that if it “continues on the path that it’s on, we could anticipate seeing 10 to 15 percent of people in the United States with COVID in this particular wave.”
Will we have a new COVID vaccine?
Yes. Based on recommendations from the Food and Drug Administration, manufacturers (Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and Novavax) are updating the COVID vaccine for the 2026-2027 season to target the XFG variant, which CDC data shows is currently circulating and driving up infections. The updated vaccine is not yet available, but it is expected to be in doctors’ offices and pharmacies in time for fall.
The reason the vaccine is recommended each fall, like the flu shot, is that its effectiveness wanes over time. “So this is the time period when we want people to get it again so that they really do have a very robust set of protections that will last them through the winter surge as well,” Guest says. In past years, older adults also have been encouraged to get a vaccine in the spring to give them a boost of protection ahead of summer.
If you’re wondering whether you need the updated COVID vaccine this year, Pekosz says, “virtually everyone can benefit from a COVID-19 vaccine this fall,” especially older adults, who are at higher risk of severe illness from a COVID infection.
A study published earlier this year in JAMA Internal Medicine found that although people age 65 and older comprised about 18 percent of the U.S. population in 2023-2024, they accounted for nearly half of COVID-19 illnesses, about 68 percent of COVID hospitalizations and an estimated 81 percent of the 100,800 COVID-related deaths.
“COVID is clearly not affecting as many people as it did in the height of the pandemic, and it’s not as deadly as it was, but it is, unfortunately, still causing death and hospitalization, and the people who are older adults are at the highest risk,” Guest says.
Steps you can take as cases rise
If you’re wondering how best to protect yourself as cases tick up — and before the updated vaccine becomes available — experts say the strategies that have worked before still work. Consider wearing a mask in crowded indoor areas, and if you develop symptoms, test to see if it’s COVID.
Common symptoms include fever, chills, cough, sore throat, fatigue, muscle aches, congestion or runny nose and headaches. A positive test may make you eligible for an antiviral treatment, which can help lessen the severity of your illness.
It’s also worth checking now whether your local pharmacy stocks COVID-19 treatments such as the antiviral medication Paxlovid. “Because if you do get sick, and particularly if you’re in one of those high-risk groups, it’ll be good to know exactly where you can go to get your COVID antivirals,” Pekosz says.
There’s also a new antiviral option this year for people who have been exposed to COVID-19 but haven’t yet tested positive. The pill, Xocova, is designed to help prevent illness after exposure — say, if a family member is sick with the virus. In a clinical study, it reduced the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 by 67 percent.
Some high-risk adults, especially in areas where COVID-19 cases are surging, may even want to talk to their doctor about getting last year’s vaccine now.
“We need to remember that COVID is still with us and that vaccines and updated vaccines are really about strengthening our protection,” Guest says.
Another thing: Plan ahead for your COVID vaccine and others you may need. “It’s that time of year when I would say everybody should start thinking about these fall vaccines,” Pekosz says. The flu shot is also recommended in September and October, and so is the RSV vaccine for older adults who haven’t had it yet.
“The data show that these vaccines work really well in terms of preventing disease but, more importantly, preventing severe disease,” Pekosz says.
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