Women Age 50+ are the Voters to Watch in Arizona

With less than five months to go until Election Day, political candidates and pundits are keeping a close eye on battleground states like Arizona that will determine the presidency and balance of power in Congress. With so much at stake, campaigns looking for victory in the Grand Canyon State should pay particularly close attention to Arizonans 50+ who historically make up the majority of the state’s electorate. AARP’s latest survey points to that trend continuing with more than 8 in 10 (86%) older Arizona voters age 50+ rating themselves as a 10 out of 10 in motivation to vote compared to 66% of those age 18-49.

Digging deeper, the key deciders will very likely be older WOMEN. They are a large group, accounting for 30% of likely voters overall, and 54% of likely voters age 50+ and they are more evenly divided politically than their male counterparts.

While Republicans enjoy a narrow 3-point registration advantage with this group, in our polling older women voters give President Biden a 2 point edge over former President Trump (48% - 46%). And, they prefer the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, Ruben Gallego, by double digits over Republican Kari Lake. Meanwhile, men 50+ identify much more strongly as Republicans (+22) and heavily favor both President Trump (+22) and Lake (+15).

Looking at what might be driving their vote, kitchen table economics and retirement security are certainly top of mind, with 61% of Arizona women 50+ saying they are worried about their personal financial situation and 52% picking at least one of a suite of personal economic matters – inflation, the economy/jobs, and Social Security – as in their top two most important issues for this election cycle. Additionally, more than 8 in 10 older women across party lines say that Social Security (83%) is extremely or very important to their vote, including more than 78% of women age 50- 64.

This really underscores the concerns that pre- and post-retirement age women have about their finances and the importance they put on preserving and protecting Social Security as the bedrock of their retirement security. While a strong majority of men 50+ also say it is important in deciding their vote, the intensity is a good bit lower at 72%. Notably, older women voters are also more likely than older men to prioritize the cost of housing (72% vs. 56%), utilities (70% vs. 59%), and prescription drugs (67% vs. 56%) in their voting decisions.