Most Older Adults Say a Projected 3.5% Social Security COLA Would Fall Short

One of the most closely watched Social Security announcements each year is the next cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Social Security benefits receive a COLA each year to help recipients keep up with inflation. But it is not always clear whether the increase is enough to cover rising prices, including health care costs that are particularly important to many older adults.

For the past several years, AARP has conducted research to understand whether adults age 50-plus believe the projected COLA is sufficient. This year’s findings are clear: Adults age 50-plus see the projected COLA as insufficient to keep up with rising prices, a view that has changed little over the past three years.

The research finds that:

Most adults age 50-plus say a projected 3.5% COLA in 2027 would not keep up with rising prices.

More than three-quarters (76%) disagree that the projected increase would be enough. Social Security recipients, who are directly affected by the annual adjustment, are especially likely to disagree (80% vs. 72% of nonrecipients). Views are similar across age groups and political parties, with no differences greater than five percentage points in net agreement or disagreement.

Seven in ten adults age 50-plus select an increase between 5% and 8% as an amount that would be sufficient to help Social Security recipients afford everyday expenses.

Overall, 71% select one of these response amounts. The share selecting an increase between 5% and 8% is similar across age groups (71% among ages 50 to 64 and 72% among age 65-plus), Social Security recipient status (72% of recipients and 70% of nonrecipients), and political parties (73% of Democrats, 70% of independents, and 69% of Republicans).

Views of the Social Security COLA have remained broadly consistent over the past three years.

In each year, more than three-quarters of adults age 50-plus disagreed that the projected increase would be enough to keep up with rising prices (83% in 2024, 77% in 2025, and 76% in 2026). The share selecting an increase of 5% to 8% as sufficient has also been fairly stable (76% in 2024, 72% in 2025, and 71% in 2026).

Methodology

The survey was fielded between September 17 and 21, 2026, among 1,023 U.S. adults age 50-plus. Funded and operated by NORC at the University of Chicago, Foresight 50+ is a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. household population age 50 or older. Interviews were conducted online and via phone. All data are weighted by age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, region, and AARP membership.

For more information, please contact Bryan Miller at bmmiller@aarp.org. For media inquiries, contact External Relations at media@aarp.org.