AARP Battleground Polls Find Trump-Biden Race Still up for Grabs

Voters 50+ split on coronavirus leadership, vaccine

Voters over age 50 in six battleground states were evenly divided when asked whether they support or oppose Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis. Americans over 50 are considered among the most vulnerable to COVID-19, and an AARP poll in the spring found that 62 percent of the 50-plus population was very concerned about the virus, while 70 percent were worried that they or a family member would contract the illness.

When voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan were asked about Trump’s handling of the virus, there was no consensus. Support for Trump’s performance was strongest in Florida, where 50 percent approved of his handling, and the sharpest criticism of his handling of the crisis came in Michigan, where 59 percent opposed his efforts.

Those results mirror voters’ overall views of the president, said John Hishta, AARP’s senior vice president of campaigns. “It’s a function of where the country is in terms of Trump’s favorable and unfavorable ratings overall,” he said.

Many 50-plus voters in these states are also unsure whether they would agree to be vaccinated if a coronavirus vaccine were available to them at no cost. While the majority of voters in those states said they would take the vaccine, the number of those who were not sure ranged from 20 percent in Wisconsin to 28 percent in North Carolina and Michigan. Wisconsin had the largest majority of 50-plus voters — 53 percent — saying they would agree to be vaccinated.

Those results, Hishta said, are the result “of all the uncertainty that people are hearing through the different channels they get their information — through Facebook or Twitter or newscasts. There’s a lot out there in terms of how people describe the vaccine and whether it’s safe or not safe. That just adds to the confusion.”

Absentee, early voting top of mind among 50+ voters

Voters in all 11 states were asked how they plan to cast their ballots this fall, and the impact of the coronavirus clearly came through in their responses.

For example, 75 percent of 50-plus voters in Arizona, 61 percent in both Florida and North Carolina, and 59 percent in Michigan say they plan to vote either via absentee ballot or in person during the early voting period.

“If you look at historical trends, this is a big shift in how people are going to vote,” Hishta said. This change in the way people plan to vote is going to have a substantial impact on how candidates campaign — in addition to the changes the coronavirus has made in electioneering.

“When candidates address constituencies like ours,” Hishta said, “they need to do it now because people are already starting to vote.” We’re not going to have an Election Day, he said; instead it’s “an election fall.”

Strong concerns about U.S. Postal Service

A majority of voters in Colorado (62 percent), Georgia (64 percent), Iowa (57 percent), Maine (63 percent) and Montana (61 percent) all expressed concerns that reductions in U.S. Postal Service operations will prevent their votes from being counted in November.

That makes AARP’s Protect Voters 50+ campaign even more important, AARP officials say. The campaign is designed to help make sure that, even as America continues to deal with the coronavirus crisis, that all voters get the information they need to safely cast their ballot.

“One thing we know is that virtually all older voters plan to vote this year,” LeaMond said. “They want to vote; they want their voices heard and they’re going to find a way to do that that’s safe,” she said. AARP is working in every state to educate older voters on voting options.

Key Senate races close

Here’s a look at what the surveys found among all voters in some key U.S. Senate races:

• In Arizona, former NASA astronaut, Democrat Mark Kelly (48 percent), leads incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally (45 percent).
• In Colorado, Democratic former Gov. John Hickenlooper (51 percent) leads incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner (46 percent).
• In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff (48 percent) leads incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue (47 percent).
• In Georgia’s special election, incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler (24 percent) leads Republican Rep. Doug Collins (20 percent), Democrat Raphael Warnock (19 percent), Democrat Matt Lieberman (10 percent), Democrat Ed Tarver (7 percent); 20 percent of voters are undecided.
• In Iowa, incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst (50 percent) leads Democrat Theresa Greenfield (45 percent).
• In Maine, Democrat Sara Gideon (44 percent) and incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins (43 percent) are within the margin of error and Independent Lisa Savage polls at 6 percent.
• In Michigan, incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters (45 percent) leads Republican John James (41 percent).
• In Montana, incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (50 percent) leads Democratic former Gov. Steve Bullock (47 percent).
• In North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham (42 percent) leads incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (39 percent).