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Why We Might Not Know Who Wins on Election Night
In the race for president, there are often valid reasons for delayed results
Sarah Rogers (Getty 2)
It may take a while to find out who won the presidential election this year.
Seasoned voters are probably used to learning who captured that top spot on election night itself. But election experts say we could be waiting longer to learn the final results of the presidential election — and that’s not a reason to lack confidence in the count.
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Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat in the seven swing states that will decide the outcome of the presidential election. A small number of ballots may decide who wins each state and any one of those states could tip the scales toward the 270 Electoral College votes needed to become president.
Since some ballots won’t be counted until after Election Day, it’s likely that Americans will have to sit tight for additional days — or even longer — to find out who will occupy the Oval Office next year.
“Election night reporting is really unofficial, and those results may change as ballot counting is completed,” says Jeanette Senecal, senior director of Mission Impact for the nonpartisan League of Women Voters. While media outlets “call” races or states when vote counts are sufficient to determine a winner, those calls do not have official standing.
After the 2020 elections and since the pandemic there’s been a significant increase in the number of absentee and mail-in ballots being cast, Senecal says.
“Those ballots are often not finished being counted on Election Day,” delaying final — and perhaps pivotal — results, Senecal adds.
Several states are also expecting an increase in provisional ballots, which are used when a voter’s eligibility is uncertain and officials later determine whether that ballot has been cast legally and can be included in the count. That can slow the tallying process too.
It’s likely the next president will not be known for days, says David Ramadan, a professor of practice at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. But that doesn’t mean something is wrong with the election system. “It’s just going to take time,” Ramadan says. “There’s nothing nefarious about it. There’s nothing crazy about it.”
Factors that may cause election result delays
It’s becoming more common to have to wait for a winner in the presidential race, but it’s not unheard of in history.
In 2020, the Associated Press called the race for then-former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democrat, over then-President Donald Trump, the Republican, on the Saturday after that year’s Tuesday election. (The results in Georgia were called later, but Biden didn’t need that state’s Electoral College votes to win.)
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In 2000, a disputed election between GOP Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Democratic Vice President Al Gore delayed the naming of Bush as the winner for a month. In the disputed election of 1876 between Democrat Samuel Tilden and Republican Rutherford B. Hayes, Hayes wasn’t declared the winner until the following March.
This year, several factors may delay projections of the winners, says Jan Leighley, professor of government at American University. They include the increased use of mail-in or absentee voting; the “curing” of ballots that have errors such as signature mismatches; and the assessment of provisional ballots, which are cast when a voter’s eligibility is uncertain. There also may be a wait for military and overseas ballots to arrive or a need for recounts in close contests.
Since U.S. elections are decentralized, states have different rules about when certain votes are tabulated, and how long authorities will wait to receive a mail-in ballot. Some states say absentee ballots must be received on Election Day. Others provide a cushion of several days for ballots to arrive, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day.
All of those methods of voting typically require security measures to ensure that votes were mailed or received at a certain time, she says.
Here’s a look at what may happen in several battleground states that could delay results:
- Arizona: The majority of people in this state vote early, and most often by mail. A law enacted in February requires a new step: County officials must count and report the number of ballots dropped off on Election Day before processing and tabulating them. In addition, Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, features two-page ballots that require more time to process. Both factors could delay the tabulation of ballots. Voters also have until Nov. 10 to correct a federal ballot that contains an error.
- Georgia: Overseas ballots postmarked by Election Day will be counted if they arrive within three days of the election. Voters who cast provisional ballots and ballots that contained minor errors also have three days to fix the problem.
- Nevada: Ballots postmarked by Election Day will be counted if they arrive within four days. In October, the state Supreme Court ruled that mail ballots missing a postmark will still be counted if they’re received up to three days after Election Day. Voters will have until Nov. 12 to address ballots with missing or mismatched signatures.
- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: Elections officials are not permitted to start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day.
Recounts could also delay the results in close races. In Wisconsin, a candidate can request a recount if the winner’s margin of victory was 1 percent or less; a 2020 recount of presidential election results in Wisconsin did not change the outcome. In Michigan, an automatic recount is done if the ballot margin is 2,000 or fewer. A recount rarely changes the outcome from the original count, Leighley says.
“The fact that we don’t know for sure the results” on election night “is a good problem to have,” Senecal says. “Our democracy is really worth waiting for.”
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