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Medicaid Expansion Population and Cost Estimates for Eleven States

As of November 2022, thirty-nine states have expanded Medicaid under provisions of the Affordable Care Act that enable states to cover individuals who earn up to 133% of the federal poverty level—or about $19,000 annually for an individual or $39,000 annually for a family of four. If the eleven remaining states move forward with expanding their Medicaid programs, PPI estimates that 926,000 currently uninsured and low-income individuals aged 50 to 64-year-old would be eligible for health coverage through Medicaid. This is significant as pre-Medicare older adults, who are more likely to experience chronic health conditions, are particularly vulnerable to bad health outcomes if they lack access to affordable care.

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As COVID-19 and other health and economic challenges continue to disproportionately affect low-income individuals, Medicaid expansion could protect vulnerable populations while allowing states to enjoy significant budget savings from the federal incentive for Medicaid expansion over calendar years 2023 and 2024.

The fact sheets below offer a data thumbnail for each of the states that have not yet expanded Medicaid. Fact sheets detail the number of people who would be eligible for Medicaid under expansion, their demographic characteristics, whether and what kind of insurance they currently have, the likelihood they would enroll in Medicaid, and the potential cost savings for each state’s budget.

These fact sheets will be updated in December 2022 with the most recent available data.

Suggested citation:

Siegel, Sari. Medicaid Expansions Population and Cost Estimates for Eleven States. Washington, DC: AARP Public Policy Institute, November 18, 2022.