If the 2024 congressional elections were held this summer, more 50-plus voters would be casting their ballots for a Republican than a Democrat, according to the results of a new AARP poll of likely voters in 40 of the most competitive districts. However, when it comes to voters of all ages, they’re deadlocked over which party they want to be in the majority in Congress.
Overall, among likely voters 18 and older, 44 percent say they would support a Democrat for Congress and 44 percent say they plan to vote for a Republican.
But among 50-plus voters, 48 percent say they would vote for the GOP candidate, while 40 percent say they favor a Democrat. Voters between the ages of 50 and 64 are even more likely to vote Republican (52 percent to 35 percent), while voters 65 and older prefer a Democrat (46 percent to 43 percent).
Among 50-plus voters, 11 percent say they are undecided on which party they favor in the 2024 congressional election. Of those older voters polled, 38 percent identified themselves as Republican, 33 percent as Democrats and 25 percent as independents.
“We know that voters age 50-plus will make up the majority of the electorate in 2024,” says Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer. “The fact that this group is divided shows that no one running for office should take them for granted or write them off. Candidates who want to win need to connect with them and address their concerns.”
Two years ago, congressional races in most of these districts were decided by less than 5 percentage points, says Tony Fabrizio, a veteran Republican strategist at Fabrizio Ward. “So, you are dealing with a razor’s-edge situation here. The Democrats don’t need a lot of seats to take control [of the U.S. House of Representatives], and Republicans don’t need a lot of seats to bolster their majority.”