When Will Gas Prices Come Down and Why?

But when it comes to what will make gas cheaper, there are several factors that play a role. A big one that is out of consumers’ control is the war in Ukraine. Already three months in, this has been a major reason why gas is so expensive. Russia isn’t a large supplier of crude oil to the U.S., but it is to Europe. The fact that Europe is shunning oil from Russia and seeking it elsewhere is pressuring supply. If the war ended, oil prices — and thus what we pay at the pump — would decline. “There’s no question if we woke up one morning and Putin was not in charge anymore, prices would drop precipitously,” says Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS. “That has been a catalyst taking prices horribly higher in the last 90 days or so.”

Summer travel lull 

Absent an end to the war in Ukraine, consumers can look to the end of the summer for potential relief. That’s when fewer road trips occur, which puts downward pressure on demand. It’s also when refiners switch back to the cheaper blend of gasoline. ​

As it stands, this summer could set near records for road travel despite high gasoline prices. According to AAA, over 39 million people were wer expected to hit the road during the Memorial Day weekend, traveling 50 miles or more from home. That’s 3 million more than 2021, or an 8.3 percent increase. It’s also the second-highest growth in travelers for Memorial Day weekend since 2010. “Right now it seems that overwhelmingly people want to make up for lost time and get out there and take trips, be it flying or driving,” says David Gulley, a professor of economics at Bentley University. “When demand for travel is high, high gas prices don’t do much to curb people driving.” But those trips tend to end in August when schools are back in session. As demand for gas declines, so should the price at the pump. ​

The one big caveat: hurricane season. “I’m worried about August,” says Kloza. “Hurricane predictions came out, and it’s expected to be a very active storm season, much more active than normal.” If one of those storms knocks a refinery out of commission, even for a few days, gas prices will likely soar again, he says. ​

Another reason gasoline prices may fall in the next few months is the White House. In April the Biden administration announced it would release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, putting more than 1 million barrels per day on the market over the next six months. A lot of the releases, which will bring more supply online, are coming through the summer, which should also temper gas prices, says Kloza. ​

Futures prices signal a decline 

Commodity traders, investors and economists tend to look at how oil futures are trading to get a sense of when consumers will get relief at the pump. Based on that, Gulley says oil, which is currently hovering at more than $105 a barrel, is projected to come down to around $85 by the end of 2022. “If that comes to fruition, that would put downward pricing pressure,” on gasoline, says Gulley. ​