AARP Poll: Voters 50+ Favor Republicans in 2024 Congressional Elections

The AARP poll surveyed 1,752 likely 2024 general election voters in 40 U.S. House of Representatives districts considered to be among the most competitive in the country. A bipartisan team of pollsters — Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research — conducted the survey via landline, cellphone and online between July 5 and July 11. The team polled an oversample of 50-plus voters, bringing to 1,200 the number of older voters interviewed. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percent.

Presidential race up for grabs

In the 2024 presidential race, the AARP poll found that voters 50-plus are almost evenly split between reelecting President Joe Biden or giving former President Donald Trump another four years in the White House. The survey also gives Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis an edge over Biden among these voters, should he be the Republican nominee in next fall's election. 

AARP

Overall, voters 18 and older surveyed give Biden a 4-percentage point edge (47 percent to 43 percent) over Trump. The poll has Biden and DeSantis, who national surveys show is the former president’s closest competition thus far for the GOP nomination, tied in a hypothetical matchup. But among the nation’s older voters, Biden and Trump are virtually tied (45 percent for Biden, 46 percent for Trump), while DeSantis outpolls Biden (48 percent to 43 percent).

Fabrizio suggested that voters take these results with a grain of salt. Of the 40 districts surveyed, he says, only seven are in what would be considered the swing states that are likely to decide the 2024 presidential contest. John Anzalone, a veteran Democratic pollster from Impact Research, says the presidential and congressional preferences in this poll “show that we’re still a dead-even country.”

Older voters likely key 

Voters 50-plus are much more motivated to vote next fall than their younger counterparts, the AARP poll shows. Historically, older voters have cast ballots in greater numbers than any other age group. The new survey shows that 85 percent of respondents 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to vote, compared with 67 percent of voters ages 18 to 49.

“Voters 50-plus are the key to winning and losing elections — and they show up,” Anzalone says. “If you are a campaign, you should be looking at this poll and knowing that older voters are the most important voters.”