The 2024 Elections Will Be a Wild Ride

Issues could matter in this election cycle

“I think one of the things that will make this election very different is that with Trump and Biden, Americans wouldn’t have to imagine what it would be like having them as president,” says Kristen Soltis Anderson, a GOP political analyst and pollster. “Voters will already have a pretty clear picture of what they’d be getting when they go to the polls.”

Democratic pollster John Anzalone agrees, adding that with the country continuing to be so politically divided, this race “basically starts out at dead even.” And Democratic strategist Celinda Lake predicts “a record amount of spending. There also [is] going to be record amounts of negative advertising.”

With Americans so familiar with the two presidential nominees, experts say that unlike in more recent contests, issues will matter. And there’s another unusual twist: Contrary to the conventional wisdom coined by former speaker of the House Tip O’Neill, in this year’s contests, all politics may not be local.

Veteran GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio says he doesn’t know if issues will play a bigger role in this election than in previous ones, but he believes they will be important. “The personalities are kind of already baked into the election,” Fabrizio says. “These are well-defined political figures. There are stark differences in their beliefs on economic policy, foreign policy, the border, energy independence. Where voters are on those issues will make a difference.”

A December public opinion poll by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 4 in 10 adults see foreign policy as an important issue for the government to pay attention to in 2024. That’s more than twice as many people as named that issue in a similar poll a year ago.

“We do have two wars going on, and you know foreign policy normally isn’t that big of an issue to voters, and it may not be top of mind, but it is certainly a secondary issue with the war going on in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war,” Anzalone says. Whether foreign policy continues to resonate with voters, he says, will depend on the status of those conflicts when voters go to the polls for the general election.

Experts agree domestic issues will still be top of mind for voters, especially the economy. The AP poll, which was conducted between Nov. 30 and Dec. 4, found that 76 percent of U.S. adults want the government to focus on economic issues. That’s essentially the same as the 75 percent who listed that as their main concern in 2022.

Older voters will decide 2024 elections

A question that perennially vexes political experts and campaign strategists is how many voters will turn out. 

“I think we’ll probably see record turnout again,” says Fabrizio. “One thing is absolutely true: that when Donald Trump is on the ballot, he drives out his supporters and he drives out his opponents.” But Kondik from the University of Virginia says turnout could well be lower than in 2020 because some voters who were more motivated to vote during the COVID-19 pandemic may not go to the polls this year.

Americans have flocked to the polls in droves in recent years. In the 2020 presidential election, turnout was nearly 67 percent of eligible voters. That was the highest voter turnout in the 21st century, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In that election, the highest turnout was among voters ages 65 to 74, at 76 percent, while the lowest participation rate was in ages 18 to 24, at just over 51 percent. 

Experts agree that, once again in this election, older voters will make the difference. 

“History dictates and continues to show that older voters are the most consistent voters when it comes to turning out to vote,” says John Hishta, AARP senior vice president of campaigns. “They will continue to play an outsize role, and it would behoove candidates to really pay attention to what older voters care about.”

In the 2024 election, AARP is asking voters and candidates to focus on two key issues for the 50-plus population: Social Security and caregiving.

“Social Security is the number one economic issue, along with rising costs and whether Social Security keeps up with rising costs,” says Lake, the Democratic strategist. But, she adds, “caregiving is an issue that is massively undertapped, and I think it’s a real umbrella for the economy, particularly for women 40 to 65.” 

AARP “is going to encourage candidates to really talk about caregiving and Social Security,” Hishta says. The organization has produced two video voter guides where GOP primary contenders outline what they would do to protect Social Security and support the 48 million family caregivers in this country. The organization has also created a 30-minute program on Social Security that is being released in the early primary states. 

Lake says the election could well turn on whom older voters, especially older women, support.

“Older men tend to be more decided and more polarized and more partisan,” Lake says. “Older women tend to be more undecided. They’re very insecure about what is going on in the world. And so, they’re looking for who has the right kind of leadership internationally, the right kind of strength, but the right kind of temperament as well.”

In addition to focusing on the issues most important for older Americans, Hishta says AARP will continue to play its long-standing role of helping people 50-plus know the rules of the road when it comes to how, where and when they can vote. AARP state offices nationwide will focus on voter education, and voter guides for 53 states and territories and the District of Columbia will be available online and in the AARP Bulletin.