2011 in America: A New Vision
William D. Novelli
AARP Executive Director and CEO
National Press Club Newsmaker Luncheon
Washington, DC
November 19, 2002
In Washington, a vision is often measured in two or four year election cycles. But today I want to ask you to join me in taking what Teddy Roosevelt called, "The long look ahead." While 2004 is an important year for obvious reasons, there is an even more critical date looming just over the horizon.
It's the year 2011, the year when the first wave of America's 76 million baby boomers turns 65. This will be the beginning of one of the most profound changes in American history. It will exert enormous pressure on our nation's social structure. Some of the pressures may not wait until 2011 to boil over.
In 21st century America, more people are living longer and living better than ever before. As Richard Hobbs, of the American Institute of Architects, wrote recently, "The impact of the aging population on markets, employers, and culture cannot be overstated. Just as the baby boom flooded maternity wards, ignited school construction, and made 'youth' the cultural icon of the 1950s, '60s, and 70s, the 'senior boom' of this century will shape the 2010s, '20s, and '30s."
In addition to the graying of America, there is another major demographic change occurring simultaneously. It is what Richard Rodriguez and others have called the "browning" of America. Whether your forebears came here on the Mayflower, or nearly a century ago, as mine did, or last month, the American melting pot has become the American mosaic.
We live today in a nation where Asian kids eat pizza, where Mexican kids can tell you what they think of you in Yiddish, where Polish kids eat empanadas, and Arabic kids ice skate. And so do their parents. Hispanic Americans are the fastest growing minority group in the country, and we welcome more Asians and Africans every day.
These demographic shifts are triggering other changes in our society that foretell a new vision of 2011 in America…changes in health, work, retirement, community and family life. Consider, for example, that:
- Our health-care delivery is based on providing acute care,
while more and more people are living with chronic conditions.
Over 40 million people are uninsured. Our society is aging, but
our new doctors are not studying geriatric medicine. While the
cost of health care goes up, the quality of care is going
down.
- People are being asked to take more personal responsibility
for their own health care. Yet the expense of health care makes
it less affordable for many people. Out-of-pocket spending on
prescription drugs and long-term care represent the greatest
health-related financial risk for older Americans.
- The workplace has changed from back work to brain work. This
enables people to work later in life, but requires them to learn
new skills and work in new ways.
Our workforce, like our society, is also aging. More boomers want to work beyond traditional retirement age, but many employers are still reluctant to hire after 40, train after 50, and retain after 60.
How we prepare for retirement is changing, too. People can no
longer balance their retirement needs on the traditional
three-legged stool of Social Security, pensions and savings.
Today, we need four pillars-Social Security, combined pensions
and savings, earnings from work and health-care coverage-for
retirement security.
Employers who once offered employees defined-benefit pension
plans have shifted the responsibility for retirement security to
their employees, with defined-contribution plans such as 401(k)s.
Many employers don't offer pension plans at all, and retiree
health insurance is becoming a thing of the past.
- The American view of retirement is changing. I come from a
family of steel workers in Pittsburgh, and when my parents'
generation retired, they did it the old-fashioned way. They
really retired. I remember my uncle Andy. He came home from the
mill one day, put down his lunch pail, sat down on the porch and
said, "That's it. I'm retired." And he
was.
Except for an afternoon walk to the Italian club, his new domain was that front porch. But boomers and older Americans today tend to see retirement not as termination, but as transition-to a life that may include work, education, civic engagement, and of course, being ardent consumers.
Yet the boomers' exuberant expectations don't match their behaviors in preparing to live an active, productive, and well-financed life as they get older:
- Studies show that boomers are not saving nearly enough to
finance the lifestyle they envision in so-called retirement. At
the same time, as many employers cut back or eliminate retiree
health care and downsize older employees, those 55-64 are one of
the largest groups of uninsured.
- Too many boomers and older people live sedentary life styles.
Poor physical fitness is a better predictor of death than any
other risk factor, including smoking, high blood pressure and
heart disease. And obesity is threatening many of the gains in
health over the last 20 years.
- More middle-aged people are struggling to raise their
children and take care of their parents. This sandwich generation
is being chewed on at both ends.
- As we live longer, people have more opportunity to give back
to society through meaningful volunteer work and other civic
involvement. Yet, we're slow to adapt our social structures
to encourage such community service. So, then, where do we stand
at this point only nine years from 2011?
- Boomers have not prepared adequately for their long
futures;
- Companies are rapidly shifting risk and responsibilities to
workers and retirees;
- Government programs are not working as well as they should,
and many need to be modernized, better financed and more engaging
to the public;
- We have a health-care system that is designed to pay bills,
but doesn't promote health and wellness; and
- We have a growing older population that by and large is vital and active and possesses great intellectual wealth. But we have not structured a social model to optimize their continued involvement.
Clearly, America has to change and change substantially, before the baby boomers begin turning 65 in 2011. To recall an ancient proverb, "Where there is no vision, the people perish." That's a 2000 year old soundbite that provides an important lesson for today.
A New Vision
We need a new vision of 2011 and beyond, framed by productive, active engagement and high quality of life throughout the human lifespan. We need to change the partnership among government, the people, and private institutions to help our citizens cope with the realities of life in the 21st century.
Let me sketch out a vision, one that applies not just to older America, but to all generations and all segments of our society.
To begin, there is a clear need to motivate individuals to take more personal responsibility for their own well being. But we must also recognize that strengthening our universal institutions-Social Security, Medicare, voting, community service, and education-is more important than ever. These are the foundations to build upon.
First, we need to rethink work and retirement together. In the old model, people paid into Social Security and received a guaranteed income when they retired. Employees enrolled in a pension plan with their company, and many people had a savings account at their local bank. Preparing for retirement was fairly passive and predictable, with a role for government, business and the individual - Social security, company pension and savings.
Today, retirement planning calls for active engagement. Defined contribution plans such as 401(k)s require employees to make their own savings and investment decisions. So, for practical purposes, corporate pensions and personal savings have become one.
People have far more personal savings options and investment opportunities. These additional choices should encourage more people to save, but they also mean that people need more help to be able to do that.
Should government guide individuals toward wise savings and investment choices? How well can it regulate investment information? What is the corporation's responsibility, which may have an interest in employees investing in company stock or in their own financial products?
Just how much choice…and protection should employees have? We've seen some recent horror stories in all this. And how can consumer groups and others help people navigate these difficult waters? We need to get this right, for the good of the individual and of society.
As I said, many boomers see continued earnings from work as part of their so-called retirement future, and retirement is becoming an integration of education, work, and leisure. But, for this to become real, individuals must be willing and able to learn and adapt.
Likewise, for employers to get the most out of an aging workforce, they must refine such strategies as flexible work schedules, telecommuting, training and education, phased retirement, and "bridge jobs" that offer new experiences and work-life flexibility.
Government must also support a new vision of continued earnings from work in retirement. We outlawed most forms of age discrimination in employment in 1967, but the EEOC reports that age discrimination complaints are increasing as the workforce grows older. Change is happening, but not always for the better.
Social Security is the only portion of retirement income that is guaranteed, and remains the foundation - in many cases, the only source - of retirement income, as well as providing disability and survivor benefits for all ages.
Although Social Security can pay full benefits until 2042, now is an important time to work on long-term solutions. We should think about measures that improve overall retirement savings and security, especially at a time when Americans face greater risk for all their other sources of retirement income.
We need to recognize Social Security's role in the retirement income framework and strengthen it for future generations. We must also figure out how to help people achieve greater savings in addition to Social Security. We are all aware that making Social Security solvent for the long term requires difficult choices. The longer we put it off, the tougher the choices.
We must also tackle the big issues of health, health care, and health insurance. Older America is generally healthier than previous generations, but as people advance in age, they spend more time, energy, and money on their health-caring for it and paying for it.
The American health-care system is a mess-and not just for individuals. Employers and government also struggle with its costs and complexities. In many ways, our health care is the best in the world… for those who can afford it. But it is fragmented, and as many have said, not really a system at all.
In order to set it right, we need to think about the role of health care in an aging society - not just health care for older people, but for a society in which people are living longer than ever before.
First, we need to make sure our kids get a healthy start in life and maintain healthy habits. My wife, Fran, and I have three young grandchildren. They're getting a healthy start in life. For them, and all children, health maintenance must be life long. And we need to continue support for medical research, certainly including government and pharmaceutical industry R & D.
We also have to deal with utilization-that is, how and how often people use health care. We can reduce over-utilization with better health education, with more preventive programs, with more focus on the effects of aging and how to counter them, and a greater role for non-physician professionals, such as nurse practitioners.
And finally, we have to accept the economic facts. Health care is expensive… for individuals, for government, and for business. We all have to share in its costs. But we cannot sustain current levels of cost increases. We spend more on health care than any other nation in the world. Yet, we are the only industrialized country that hasn't figured out how to make health care available to all our citizens.
Creating a better system of health care for an aging America forces us to challenge conventional wisdom. For example, think of doctors making house calls, which are considered outdated and inefficient in 21st century medicine.
But with today's technology, what if we moved at least some medical practice out of expensive offices and into the patient's home? Some practitioners are finding that it is effective, less costly, more personal, and helps keep people out of nursing homes.
The same is true for coverage of more home service, which is cheaper than nursing homes and usually more satisfactory. And we might also consider greater use of - and reasonable compensation for - consultations with physicians on the phone and by e-mail to save time and money.
These aren't total solutions, but this is the kind of thinking we need to construct a real system of quality, compassionate and cost-effective health care for our aging society.
As part of this, Medicare reform is urgently needed, including a prescription-drug benefit that is affordable, voluntary and accessible to all. This is high on our agenda and the agendas of the White House and Congress, and it should be.
Will we have the political will and courage to structurally reform our health care system before 2011…or before we have a melt down, whichever comes first? There are many influential policy makers, business leaders and others ready to try. At AARP, we're ready to be part of it.
Another element of a new vision of active engagement requires that we change the way we think about older people. Contrary to popular belief, not all older people suffer from disabilities, they don't all live in nursing homes or with their adult children, most will not get Alzheimer's disease, they're not all rich and they're not all poor.
If you want to see a great picture of aging, take a look at the cover of the current issue of our AARP Modern Maturity magazine. A lot of the negative stereotypes will change as boomers move into their older years, because they just won't tolerate it.
And things will change because the sheer size of this demographic wave is making mid-life and older people the key consumer segment of the next decade. In coming decades, the U.S., with our steadily growing population, will remain the center of the world economy.
Age does not equal disability. About 80 percent of Americans 65 and over have no limitations to their daily activities and are capable of fully contributing to society. We offer support to the remaining 20 percent who are limited - as we should. But what do we offer to the majority who want to contribute and stay engaged?
How do we capture, as our founder Ethel Percy Andrus put it, "the accumulated experience, the knowledge, wisdom, and skills of all older adults"? How do we capitalize on the increased longevity of our population, which Theodore Roszak calls "the true wealth of nations"?
Our research tells us that older people want to volunteer even more than they already are…and that many of them want to work with children. So, we're developing a new partnership with Big Brothers/Big Sisters to give them that opportunity.
This is just one example. But the point is, we need new ideas and structures to get the best from all our citizens at any age. This requires an awakening… an understanding of American social and demographic change. We're now close enough to see what's coming, and we must create a future of active engagement to address the new realities of 2011 and beyond.
Two hundred years ago, if a farmer were asked what could be done to improve his life, he might have said, "Give me more horses." He would not have thought of a tractor or a combine. Today, when we ask, "How do we address the needs of an aging society," the answer is not to put up more nursing homes or build a better wheel chair.
We need to think about changing the environment we live in and how we interact with it. At the MIT AgeLab, they are doing just that. They're creating homes, workplaces, clothes and lifestyle strategies for the actively aging.
In one example: they are working on a biosuit, modeled after sleek Olympic track suits that will improve circulation, control temperature, protect fragile areas like the knees and hips during falls and simulate the effects of leg and muscle groups helping people to stand and walk. As one researcher put it, "I think they'd certainly like it more than the standard aluminum walker, which is an insult to engineering."
At AARP, we intend to be part of the new vision. We have three great goals:
- To be one of the most successful organizations in America for positive social change. In other words, to make a real and lasting contribution to this great nation.
- To help our members have choices, reach their goals and dreams, and make the most of life after 50.
- And to be a world leader in global aging.
Our information services, federal and state advocacy, the purchasing power of our membership, our expanding volunteer opportunities and growing prospects for member enrichment are aimed at helping Americans of all generations to be healthy, to age with dignity and purpose and to participate actively in society.
No one can do it alone. We need a national sense of urgency. 2011 is not far off-only four election cycles away. Considering how slowly our public policy machinery grinds, it is almost tomorrow. And 2011 will be the beginning of a new era, not a one-time event.
On today's date, November 19, in 1863, President Abraham Lincoln traveled about 70 miles north of here to deliver a two-minute speech. In his Gettysburg address, Lincoln captured the essence of the war: the symbolic birth, death, and rebirth of the nation. He spoke of the principles of our democracy and rededicated efforts to "the unfinished work… the great task remaining before us… a new birth of freedom."
We, too, have a "great task before us" as we prepare for 2011. It is the creation of a society where everyone lives and ages with independence and dignity…where aging brings us that "new birth of freedom."
This is not a partisan idea…not a liberal or conservative agenda. It's not an idea just for the old or the young. It will require everyone-government, business, non-profits and individuals-to accept new responsibilities. Active, productive engagement is a vision we can all achieve and share…a new vision for 2011 in America.
