Divided We Fail Election Issue Surveys

These surveys of AARP members who say they may vote in their states' Democratic or Republican primary elections or attend either party's caucuses explore how closely they are following coverage of the candidates and how likely they are to change their candidate preferences as they learn more about the issues.

Two domestic issues of importance to AARP members - financial security and health care - are explored in depth with questions about how well candidates address each issue and who can best break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in these areas.

Florida - January 21, 2008

Nearly all Florida members who may vote in the upcoming Democratic and Republican presidential primaries are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely. While candidate preferences have firmed up somewhat since our July 2007 survey of these members, 55 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans say they are very or somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election.

Large majorities of likely Democratic and Republican voters report that the issues of Financial Security (FS) and Health Care (HC) will be important to their voting decision, and more now than in July are able to say which candidate best addresses each of these issues. However, significant numbers say they still do not know enough about these issues to make a judgment (Republicans: FS 58%, HC 62%; Democrats: FS 56%, HC 37%).

Download the Florida election issue survey reports: January 21st or August 23rd (PDF).

South Carolina - January 2, 2008

AARP members who may vote in the South Carolina primary elections continue to follow candidate coverage closely. Still, over six in ten potential Democratic voters and almost eight in ten potential Republican voters say they are at least somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues. Many say they do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care, issues seen by members as important to their voting decision. Larger proportions, however, can rate candidates on these issues than we saw in the mid-summer and October polls. And four candidates are now rated as addressing the issues well by a majority of potential voters.

Download the South Carolina election issue survey reports: January 2nd or August 23rd (PDF).

Nevada - December 19, 2007

Although candidate preferences among AARP members who say they will attend the presidential caucus elections have firmed up somewhat since our July survey of these members, 76 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of Democrats report they are still somewhat or very likely to change preference as they learn more about the issues. Large majorities of these respondents report that the issues of Financial Security (FS) and Health Care (HC) will be important to their voting decision, and more now than in July are able to say which candidate best addresses each of these issues. But significant numbers say they still do not know enough about these issues to make a judgment (Republicans: FS 57%, HC 58%; Democrats: FS 52%, HC 33%).

Download the Nevada election issue survey reports: December 19th or August 23rd (PDF).

New Hampshire - December 13, 2007

AARP members who state they are potential voters in the New Hampshire presidential primary election have somewhat firmed up their candidate preferences since the July survey of these members. However, 69 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of Democrats report they are still somewhat or very likely to change preference as they learn more about the issues. Among surveyed members, large majorities say that issues related to financial security and health care are important to their 2008 voting decision. It is clear that members are saying they are better able now to judge candidates on these issues, rating many candidates higher in December than in July as having addressed financial security and health care issues well.

Download the New Hampshire election issue survey reports: December 13th or August 23rd (PDF).

Iowa - December 10, 2007

AARP members who may attend the Iowa caucuses are following candidate coverage more closely now than they were in August. Although fewer now say they may change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues, majorities of both parties say they are still somewhat or very likely to shift preferences. Financial security and health care continue to be important issues to AARP members. Although more members can now rate candidates on these issues, many report that they still do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care to decide which candidate would best address these issues.

Download the Iowa election issue survey reports: December 10th or August 23rd (PDF).

Iowa Republicans - November 6, 2007

AARP Iowa members who have attended caucuses in the past and are likely to attend the Republican caucuses in 2008 responded to this Divided We Fail issue survey. At this point in the election cycle, almost nine in ten likely Republic caucus attendees are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely. However, three-fourths (76%) say they are very or somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election.

Most likely Republican caucus attendees say that issues related to financial security and health care will be important to their voting decisions in 2008. The majority, though, say they need to know more about candidates’ positions to be able to assess them or decide who would best address health care and financial security concerns.

Download the Iowa Republican election issue survey reports: November 6th or October 16th (PDF).

South Carolina - November 5, 2007

The second Divided We Fail issue survey conducted in South Carolina assessed the views of likely Democratic and Republican voters who plan to vote in the 2008 presidential primaries. At this point in the election cycle, over eight in ten voters in the state are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely. However, 63% of likely Democratic voters and 76% of likely Republican voters say they are very or somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election.

Almost all likely voters say that issues related to financial security and health care will be important to their voting decisions in 2008. Despite their intense interest in campaign coverage, most feel they need to know more about candidates’ positions to be able to assess them or decide who would best address health care and financial security concerns.

Download the South Carolina election issue survey reports: November 5th or August 23rd (PDF).

New Hampshire Independents - November 1, 2007

AARP New Hampshire members who consider themselves independent voters and who plan to vote in one of the 2008 presidential primaries responded to this Divided We Fail issue survey. At this point in the election cycle, over three in four independent voters in the state are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely. However, almost seven in ten say they are very or somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election.

Almost all independent voters say that issues related to financial security and health care will be important to their voting decisions in 2008. However, despite their intense interest in campaign coverage, most feel they need to know more about candidates' positions to be able to assess them or decide who would best address health care and financial security concerns.

Download the New Hampshire Independents issue survey report (PDF).

Florida Independents - October 2nd to 14th, 2007

AARP Florida members who consider themselves independent voters and who plan to vote in one of the 2008 presidential primaries responded to this second Divided We Fail issue survey in Florida. At this point in the election cycle, over three in four independent voters in the state are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely. However, eight in ten say they are very or somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election.

Almost all independent voters say that issues related to financial security and health care will be important to their voting decisions in 2008. However, despite their intense interest in campaign coverage, most feel they need to know more about candidates’ positions to be able to assess them or decide who would best address health care and financial security concerns.

Download the Florida Independents issue survey report (PDF).

Iowa Republicans - October 10th to 12th, 2007

This telephone survey assessed the views of AARP members in Iowa who have attended Republican presidential caucuses in the past and are likely to attend the 2008 caucuses. Even though the caucuses are still a few months away, over eight in ten likely Republican caucus attendees are following the candidate coverage closely and feel it is important that all Republican candidates participate in the nationally televised health and financial security issues forum to be held in Sioux City on October 25.

Almost all likely Republican caucus attendees say that issues related to financial security such as incentives for savings and investment, pension protection, and Social Security will be important to their vote, and over eight in ten say that health care reform will be important to their 2008 voting decision.

Download the Iowa Republicans issue survey report (PDF).

Iowa Democrats - September 24th to 26th, 2007

This issue survey conducted in Iowa assessed the views of AARP members who have attended caucuses in the past and are likely to attend the Democratic caucuses in 2008. Although this group of likely caucus attendees is slightly more aware of candidates' positions on issues, they are far from settled in their candidate preferences, and may change their choices as they learn more about the issues.

Almost all likely Democratic caucus attendees say that issues relating to financial security and health care will be important to their voting decisions in 2008. However, despite their intense interest in campaign coverage, most feel they need to know more about candidates' positions to be able to assess them or decide who would best address health care and financial security concerns.

A parallel survey of 500 AARP members who are likely Republican caucus attendees will be conducted in late October, 2007.

Download the Iowa Democrats issue survey report (PDF).

Michigan - September 12th to 16th, 2007

AARP members who may vote in the Michigan presidential primaries are following candidate coverage. However, they have not settled on presidential preferences. Most say they may change their preference as they learn more about the candidates' positions on the issues. Two domestic issues - financial security and health care - were explored in depth. Both of these issues are important to AARP members as they decide on their votes. However, in spite of following campaign coverage, large proportions of the potential voters in the Michigan primaries do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care to be able to assess them or choose which candidate would best address the issues.

Download the Michigan election issue survey report (PDF).

Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina - July 24th to August 16th, 2007

In general, AARP members in all five states are following candidate coverage, but have not settled on presidential preferences which may change as they learn more about candidates' positions on the issues. A majority of respondents planning to participate in the primaries or caucuses of each party say that health care and financial security will be important in their voting decisions. However, large proportions of those surveyed do not yet know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care to be able to assess them or decide which candidate would best address these issues.

Methodology

Telephone surveys of a random sample of members drawn from AARP's member database were conducted for AARP by Woelfel Research, Inc. These members were screened on being registered voters, the likelihood of caucus or primary participation, and the party caucus or primary in which they planned to participate. Approximately 500 members planning to participate in the Democratic caucuses or primaries and 500 planning to participate in the Republican caucuses or primaries were interviewed in each state. Further information about the surveys may be obtained by contacting Gretchen Straw at 202-434-6334.

Related Links:

• Press release (8/23/07)
• Divided We Fail Debate Tracker
• Additional Divided We Fail research reports