Election Issues Surveys: View from the Early States

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These surveys of AARP members who say they may vote in their states’ Democratic or Republican primary elections or attend either party’s caucuses explore how closely they are following coverage of the candidates and how likely they are to change their candidate preferences as they learn more about the issues.

Two domestic issues of importance to AARP members — financial security and health care — are explored in depth with questions about how well candidates address each issue and who can best break through special interest and partisan gridlock to make real progress in these areas.

Latest Results

Nearly half of New York State residents aged 18 and older who are likely voters in the upcoming Democratic and Republican presidential primaries say that they are likely to change their candidate preferences as they learn more about the issues between now and the election.

Large majorities of likely Democratic and Republican voters report that the issues of Financial Security (FS) and Health Care (HC) will be important to their voting decision. However, significant numbers say they do not know enough about these issues to make a judgment (Republicans: FS 50%, HC 54%; Democrats: FS 42%, HC 27%).

Download New York January 24 Election Issues report (PDF).

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Previous Election Issue Survey Results

Nearly all Florida members who may vote in the upcoming Democratic and Republican presidential primaries are following the candidate coverage at least somewhat closely. While candidate preferences have firmed up somewhat since our July 2007 survey of these members, 55 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans say they are very or somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues between now and the election.

Large majorities of likely Democratic and Republican voters report that the issues of Financial Security (FS) and Health Care (HC) will be important to their voting decision, and more now than in July are able to say which candidate best addresses each of these issues. However, significant numbers say they still do not know enough about these issues to make a judgment (Republicans: FS 58%, HC 62%; Democrats: FS 56%, HC 37%).

Download:
1/21/08: Florida Election Issues report (PDF).
10/18/07: Florida Independent Voters Election Issues report (PDF).
8/23/07: Florida Election Issues report (PDF).

AARP members who may vote in the South Carolina primary elections continue to follow candidate coverage closely. Still, over six in ten potential Democratic voters and almost eight in ten potential Republican voters say they are at least somewhat likely to change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues. Many say they do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care, issues seen by members as important to their voting decision. Larger proportions, however, can rate candidates on these issues than we saw in the mid-summer and October polls. And four candidates are now rated as addressing the issues well by a majority of potential voters.

Download:
1/2/08: South Carolina January 2 Election Issues report (PDF).
11/5/07: South Carolina Election Issues report (PDF).
8/23/07: South Carolina Election Issues report (PDF).

Although candidate preferences among AARP members who say they will attend the presidential caucus elections have firmed up somewhat since our July survey of these members, 76 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of Democrats report they are still somewhat or very likely to change preference as they learn more about the issues. Large majorities of these respondents report that the issues of Financial Security (FS) and Health Care (HC) will be important to their voting decision, and more now than in July are able to say which candidate best addresses each of these issues. But significant numbers say they still do not know enough about these issues to make a judgment (Republicans: FS 57%, HC 58%; Democrats: FS 52%, HC 33%).

Download:
12/19/07: Nevada Election Issues report (PDF).
8/23/07: Nevada Election Issues report (PDF).

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AARP members who state they are potential voters in the New Hampshire presidential primary election have somewhat firmed up their candidate preferences since the July survey of these members. However, 69 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of Democrats report they are still somewhat or very likely to change preference as they learn more about the issues. Among surveyed members, large majorities say that issues related to financial security and health care are important to their 2008 voting decision. It is clear that members are saying they are better able now to judge candidates on these issues, rating many candidates higher in December than in July as having addressed financial security and health care issues well.

Download:
12/13/07: New Hampshire Election Issues report (PDF).
11/1/07: New Hampshire Independent Voters Election Issues report (PDF).
8/23/07: New Hampshire Election Issues report (PDF).

AARP members who may attend the Iowa caucuses are following candidate coverage more closely now than they were in August. Although fewer now say they may change their candidate preference as they learn more about the issues, majorities of both parties say they are still somewhat or very likely to shift preferences. Financial security and health care continue to be important issues to AARP members. Although more members can now rate candidates on these issues, many report that they still do not know enough about candidate positions on financial security and health care to decide which candidate would best address these issues.

Download:
12/10/07: Iowa Election Issues report (PDF).
11/6/07: Iowa Election Issues report (PDF).
10/16/07: Iowa Republican Caucus Election Issues report (PDF).
10/8/07: Iowa Democratic Caucus Election Issues report (PDF).
8/23/07: Iowa Election Issues report (PDF).

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A strong majority of surveyed AARP members planning to vote in Michigan’s Democratic or Republican primary election are engaged in following candidate coverage closely, but are far from settled in their preferences for individual candidates and may change their choices as they learn more about the issues.

Almost all potential voters in both parties say that issues relating to financial security and health care will be important to their voting decisions in 2008. However, despite their intense interest in campaign coverage, most feel they need to know more about candidates’ positions to be able to assess them or decide who would best address health care and financial security concerns.

Download Michigan Election Issues report (PDF)

Survey Methodology

Telephone surveys of a random sample of members drawn from AARP’s member database were conducted for AARP by Woelfel Research, Inc. These members were screened on being registered voters, the likelihood of caucus or primary participation, and the party caucus or primary in which they planned to participate. Approximately 500 members planning to participate in the Democratic caucuses or primaries and 500 planning to participate in the Republican caucuses or primaries were interviewed in each state. Further information about the surveys may be obtained by contacting Gretchen Straw at 202-434-6334 or Jeff Love at 202-434-6279.

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