The Changing Workforce
By: Source: AARP.org Date Posted: 2004-07-02 15:23:00-04:00
There is a change coming in the demographics of the national workforce. This change may help you request a more flexible work schedule or increase your value to an employer.
According to the Employment Policy Foundation (EPF), there will be 4 million more jobs than workers by 2011. That gap will get bigger for many years after that. By 2030, there could be 35 million unfilled jobs. What's causing this large gap? There won't be enough people to fill available jobs.
There are about 76 million baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964. In 2011, the oldest boomers will turn 65, an age when many will begin to retire. There are only 45 million in the next generation, often called the baby bust or Generation X. That leaves a gap of more than 30 million people. Of course, not everyone in a generation works. But it is a good bet that there will not be enough workers to fill the needs of companies. Production and profits will suffer.
Which Jobs Will New Workers Need to Fill?
Predicting exactly which jobs new workers will need to fill is complicated. In the future, some workers may not retire at the same ages as workers before them. They may delay retirement for a number of reasons.
- The age for getting full Social Security benefits is slowing increasing to age 67.
- Many companies are changing from defined-benefit pensions to defined-contribution pensions. Defined-benefit pensions tend to benefit older workers. They take into account age and length of time on the job in calculating benefit amounts.
- Workers are staying healthier and so working longer.
- Many older employees want to continue working for enjoyment as well as for the money.
However, some occupations have such a large portion of boomers among their workers that boomer retirements will affect them no matter what. Here are the 10 occupations most likely to be affected. Each will need to replace hundreds of thousands of workers as the boomers retire:
- Secretaries
- Heavy truck drivers
- Elementary school teachers
- Janitors and cleaners
- Secondary school teachers
- Registered nurses
- Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks
- College and university teachers
- Educational and other administrators
- Farmers
As you can see, boomer retirements will most affect educational services. They will also affect transportation, health services, and public administration. Many of these jobs will require higher education. The EPF predicts that between 2003 and 2013, there will be nearly 31 million job openings for workers with a two-year college degree or more. But there will probably be only about 23 million new graduates to fill those openings.
What the Best Employers are Doing
Researchers have written about the importance of keeping skilled older workers in the workforce for many years. But only the most forward-looking employers have begun paying attention. Few companies and organizations have taken steps to stop the loss of older workers. Many focus only on today's problems. In fact, many companies still give early-retirement incentives, instead of incentives for working longer.
Employers will have to step up to the plate if they want to attract, recruit, and keep older workers. One of the best ways to do this is to offer more flexible work options. These options can include part-time and intermittent work, phased retirement, and working after retirement.
Some researchers predict that in just a few years, employers will be fighting hard to recruit or keep older workers who are now experiencing age bias. As an older worker, your chances for being able to ask for - and get - both jobs and flexible work arrangements may soon be greater than they have ever been.
You may already work for an employer that knows it is wise to keep older workers. Knowing what forward-looking employers are doing to keep their older workers may help you propose flexible work arrangements to your own employer - to keep you on the job. If you look for a new job, add employers with older-worker-friendly provisions to your job-search list.
Each year, AARP honors the Best Employers for Workers Over 50. These employers give older workers flexible work options and training in new skills. Honorees range from large, internationally known companies to smaller employers. All find that older workers are crucial to their organizations' missions and bottom lines.
These employers know that treating their employees well is a good business decision. These companies and organizations are not likely to suffer the brain drain that will affect many employers when boomers without flexible work options leave.
Best employers use these older-worker-friendly practices:
Recruiting
Place ads in publications used by diverse age groups. Make sure that the words and pictures in recruiting materials appeal to workers of all ages.
Training
Help all workers keep their skills sharp. Offer continuing education for all workers. Strongly encourage older workers to take part in education on the job. Offer career counseling for all ages.
Health Benefits
Offer flexible medical, prescription drug, vision, and dental insurance coverage. Provide extras like long-term care insurance and short- and long-term disability insurance.
Pension Plans
Offer tax-sheltered retirement accounts such as 401(k)s.
Alternative Work Arrangements
Offer more flexible work such as part-time and intermittent work, telecommuting, phased retirement to gradually reduce work hours, and working after retirement.
AARP Resources
Great Jobs: Our Annual List
Get ideas of flexible work arrangements to propose to your own employer.
The 25 Best Employers for Workers Over 50
AARP's chart of the 25 Best Employers for 2003. See which older-worker-friendly practices the best employers use.
Additional Resources
Demographic Trends Pose Challenges for Employers and Workers
The U.S. General Accounting Office predicts what will happen to jobs and to older workers.
A Labor and Skill Shortage is Looming in the U.S.
The Employment Policy Foundation's 2003 report shows that, by the year 2030, there are likely to be 35 million more jobs than workers.
Occupations With the Greatest Retiree Replacement Needs
See what the US Department of Labor has to say about labor shortages that are coming.
Gauging the Labor Force Effects of Retiring Baby Boomers
Check out this Department of Labor article for more charts and details on jobs that will need replacement workers.
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