In September, Trump Has Narrow Lead Among WI Voters 50-Plus

The presidential race is extremely close among Wisconsin voters, with Kamala Harris (D) leading Donald Trump (R) 49% to 48%, with 3% undecided. Harris’ lead is due to nearly unanimous support among Democrats and an 11 point lead among Independents. However, among voters 50 and older, Trump has a narrow lead of 47% to 45%. Within this electorate, Trump leads by 10 points with voters 50–64, while Harris is ahead 6 points with voters 65 and older.

The Senate race is close, too. Senator Tammy Baldwin leads Eric Hovde 50% to 47%, with 3% undecided. Among voters 50 and older, Hovde holds a narrow lead, 50% to 49%. The cohort of voters 50–64 favors Hovde by 11 points, while Baldwin has an 8-point lead among those age 65 and older. 

Over three quarters of voters age 50 and older report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are very important in deciding their vote, followed by Medicare (69%), helping people stay in their homes as they age (63%), and the cost of prescription drugs (59%). Nearly four in five older Wisconsin voters prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiations for lower drug prices. The most important policy issues for older voters in Wisconsin include immigration and border security, the economy and jobs, and inflation and rising prices.

Methodology

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Wisconsin. The firms interviewed 1,052 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, and an oversample of 452 likely voters age 50 and older. The survey was conducted between September 11–14, 2024 via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Wisconsin voter list. 

For more information, please contact Kate Bridges at kbridges@aarp.org. For media inquiries, please contact External Relations at media@aarp.org.