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Voters Age 45-Plus Could Dominate Younger Voters

Since 1994, the gap between voters age 45 and older and those under the age of 45 whom show up at the polls in a mid-term election has been widening. If the trend holds this November, two-thirds of voters will be age 45-plus, doubling the number of voters under 45, this according to a new analysis of voting trends by AARP.

“It’s well-documented that older voters have a tremendous impact on elections, said AARP Colorado Senior State Director Morie Smile. “When the votes are counted on Nov. 2, two of every three voters are expected to be over the age of 45. Anyone running for elected office would be wise to note who is voting them in. It’s a very substantial voting bloc.”

According to the AARP analysis, turnout patterns of older voters in both presidential and mid-term elections since 1994 have shown that voters over 45 make up the majority of the voting. In 1994, older voters represented 56 percent of those voting. By 2006, older voters represented 65 percent of those voting. Over this period, the gap of those voting in elections has increased from a +6 percent to a +16 percent margin for voters over 45 in presidential elections and a +12 percent to +30 percent margin for voters 45+ in mid-term congressional elections. The complete analysis is available online.

The report concludes that, “over time, older Americans have increased their share of the voting electorate in all elections, but for mid-term congressional elections, the trend has been relatively dramatic. If this trend is continued…the number of older voters in the 2010 congressional elections would be twice the number of younger voters.”

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