Things looking up, but ...
Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group of Princeton, N.J., offers a similar upbeat forecast of a recovery that began in July and is gaining momentum. "We're seeing a pickup in permanent workers, and I expect temporary hiring will be fading," he says.
While the forecast is rosier than in the previous three years, economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute in Washington says a total of 11 million jobs must be created to return to prerecession unemployment rates.
"We're moving in the right direction, but we won't get out of the hole anytime soon," Jay Feldman, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York, told the Bloomberg news service. "For the Fed, it means steady as she goes."
For 2010 as a whole, the unemployment rate of 9.6 percent stood at roughly double the 4.6 percent rate of 2006 and 2007, before the recession. The rate climbed to 5.8 percent in 2008 and spiked to 9.3 percent for 2009.
Overall, more than 8.4 million jobs were lost from December 2007 through December 2009, according to the BLS. Since then, companies have relied on remaining employees to work longer and harder to pick up the slack. Some employers hired temporary or part-time workers rather than permanent staff.
The labor market varies by region. For a snapshot of the economic situation in your area, check out AARP's "pain index."
Consumers still facing hard times
In previous recessions, Shierholz says, consumer spending led the nation to stronger recoveries. But not this time around.
"Consumers are a lot poorer than they used to be," she says. "They lost a ton of wealth in the housing sector. And families are facing huge instability in the job market with job loss and wage stagnation," leaving them with less income to spend.
Though companies are expected to be more eager to hire in 2011, finding work may remain difficult. Job seekers will likely face competition from long-term unemployed workers reentering the market as well as from employed workers who sat tight in their jobs during the recession but are now ready to seek "greener pastures," workforce consultant John A. Challenger says.
In Youngstown, Ohio, 60-year-old Vernon Penny Jr. is already benefiting from a brighter labor market. He landed a job in December as a private security guard after being unemployed for nearly a year. It's not the job of his dreams — he was a television technician for 10 years and worked in loss prevention for four years — but he says he's fortunate to be back at work again.
"I had about five interviews in 10 months," says Penny, who is also taking information technology courses at a vocational school. "This opportunity presented itself, and I'm able to go to school at night. I hope to get a help-desk job."
Tips for job seekers
But unlike Penny, millions remain out of work. If you're among them, here are some job-seeking tips to consider:
- Retool and retrain. Update your marketing skills by learning about social marketing, or develop new skills via vocational school or community college courses.
- Open a home office. Do what you do best (bookkeeping, accounting or marketing, for example) and use it as a means to become self-employed.
- Get connected. Join social networking sites and let everyone know you're looking for work. Attend professional association and industry events to meet new people in your field.
- Do good. Volunteer and use your skills so people can see you in action and recommend you for current or future openings.
- Look sharp. Project energy on job interviews and update your wardrobe to look professional yet stylish.
If you're over 55 and meet certain income requirements, AARP's free Senior Community Service Employment Program can help. AARP staff will assess your job skills and interests, connect you with training, help you update your résumé and provide you with job leads.
Carole Fleck is a senior editor at the AARP Bulletin.