International Comparisons
Japan 2003: The Politics of Aging
Speech
September 2003
Washington, DC
Thank you very much for having me here this morning.
1. The politics of aging encapsulates much of the public policy environment in today’s Japan. One of the most tantalizing questions is: “what impact will Japan’s burgeoning senior ranks have on policy and policy makers?” That is clearly a very dynamic question, which will require some dynamic strategies to fully address! However, in seven to ten minutes this morning, we will save the strategies and think instead about three things: what we see when we glance in the rear view mirror, where we are at present, and what looms on the horizon.
2. The major fact that pops out of the rear view mirror is that older Japanese citizens have been fixtures of the political system for the past five decades. They have been the consistent participants in the nation's political culture. One of the Japanese politicians I used to work for published a book in 1991, and we held a large book party at a hotel in Tokyo to celebrate. Of the roughly 2,000 people that came, nearly 95 percent were over the age of 65:
- Twenty-something Japanese would not be caught dead at a politician's book party, 30-something mothers have their hands full managing their households or working, working-age men are either working or searching for work, which leaves older Japanese looking for social engagement.
- Japan's political culture has been largely defined by overlapping hierarchies of groups, relationships, social interaction and financial obligations, rather than by ideas, agendas, or individuals.
3. Older citizens are the foot soldiers that make the political structure stick together. They work in political offices as volunteers, staff the events, distribute the materials, and participate in the myriad of social gatherings that surround political campaigns. There are 722 members of the Japanese parliament, or Diet, 480 in the lower house and 242 in the upper house. Of these, 449, or 62 percent, are elected from electoral districts: the remaining 273 are elected via proportional representation. At the local level, there are 47 prefectures, 677 cities, 1,961 towns, and 552 villages:
- Traditionally, each Diet member has been supported by a network of officials in these local assemblies, forming a pyramid that extends down to the village.
- The unemployed son of the union chief in town gets a job as a driver for a member of the municipal assembly. The fact that the assembly member does not need a fifth driver and that the money actually comes from a prefectural assembly member, who was told to do this by a Diet member, is unstated but never forgotten.
4. The “senior vote,” that of citizens 65 or older, has long been the anchor support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Japan, and with good reason. It has been quite a political bargain. Throughout the high-growth decades and now the years of relative economic stagnation, LDP politicians have protected the programs that are vital to this age group: universal health care, social security, pensions, and now long-term care:
- In addition, politicians made sure that agriculture, small and medium-size enterprise, and the service economy - long the underbelly of Japan’s economic miracle and the employers of many older citizens - remain open for business.
5. In exchange for these programs, older voters have largely stayed true, despite dramatic increases in disaffection rates among middle-age Japanese and persistent apathy among younger people:
- Over 22 parliamentary elections, from 1946 to 2000, the percentage of eligible Japanese voters who voted slipped from 64.9 percent to 59 percent:1 However, within these figures, the proportion of voters in their 60s who voted was far larger than that of eligible voters in their 20s. Currently, one third of all voters are over the age of 60.
- For example, in the 1996 lower house elections overall voter participation in Tokyo fell below 60 percent for the first time since World War II. At the same time, according to Mainichi Newspaper, more than 70 percent of voters over the age of 60 actually cast ballots, whereas less than 40 percent of voters in their 20s chose to participate.2
- The past several parliamentary elections show a clear trend. The LDP is losing ground in urban areas and failing to win support from younger voters. The number of independent, non-affiliated voters in urban areas is swelling. However, the party remains strong in more rural districts and with older voters.
6. As we shift from the past to the present, we see two things: first, the number of older Japanese is rapidly increasing and will continue to do so. We have all read the statistics. Twelve percent of the Japanese population was over 65 in 1990, 18 percent in 2000, and by 2025, there will be roughly one person over 65 for every two people of working age. By the end of this month, there will be over 20,000 Japanese citizens aged 100 or higher. Japan already has the world’s highest life expectancy for men and women (78.07 and 84.93, respectively) and, not surprisingly, the oldest man and woman, 114 and 116 respectively.3
7. Second, the combination of more senior citizens and less economic growth has strained the social contract to the breaking point and rendered the underlying political bargain unsustainable. Working citizens are well-aware that they cannot count on universal health care, public pensions, or the new long term care insurance system to meet their needs. Lifetime employment was never a reality for much of the Japanese population, but these social programs have been a fixture:
- Today, nearly 90 percent of Japan’s 1700 public health insurance federations are operating at significant deficits. The government is currently debating a hike in pension premiums and a cut in benefits. The long term care insurance system will not provide a future payout that is nearly adequate to meet the care needs of Japanese who are now working.
- Japanese citizens in their 40s and 50s in 2003 face very uncertain prospects; and to compound the problem, their own children, now graduating from college, are struggling to find full-time employment. Jobless rates for college graduates are the highest they have been since World War II. As deflation watchers know well, this is not an environment conducive to dramatic consumption. Absent economic growth and/or an increase in immigration, more taxes are inevitable.
The bottom line: programs will have to change. As the Asahi Newspaper pointed out earlier this month, “the government faces a treacherous task.”
8. Finally, we come to the horizon. What does all of this mean for the way aging voters will shape Japanese policy making and the political system moving forward? I think we are heading into a whole new world:
- Previously, elderly Japanese were only one group among many that received special treatment from politicians. Looking ahead, Japan’s economic difficulties mean that competition over limited resources will only become more severe.
- Traditionally, senior Japanese could count on other powerful stakeholders, such as physicians, to lobby and advocate on their behalf. If physicians felt that a separate insurance plan for citizens 70 and over, or a hike in co-pays, would dissuade people from visiting hospitals, they lobbied against these initiatives. Looking ahead, it will be more difficult to find common ground.
- In the past, there was not such a broad band of elderly citizens. Looking ahead, the outlook of someone who is still working at 65 will be quite different from someone who has been retired for twenty years at 85.
9. Competition, the need to find new allies, and a more diverse membership. These new dynamics will create the impetus within the aging community for more organization, greater focus, and much more engagement in policy discussions than has occurred thus far in Japan. As old relationships break down, and new alliances emerge, the demand for information about global developments and policy alternatives will also significantly increase. This will be a very exciting environment, but it will not be a natural evolution for many Japanese seniors. After decades of being relatively sheltered from policy dueling, it is likely to be somewhat uncomfortable. However, in many ways the entrance of senior voters into the policy fray in a more organized fashion will do much to invigorate Japanese democracy. These are people who know what it means to vote. They represent a prize that politicians will truly fight for.
Remember the municipal assembly member with five drivers? It turns out municipal assembly members in Japan average over 60 years of age too!
Thank you very much!
1Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance,
www.idea.int
2
Mainichi Interactive
3Japan to
have 20,000 centenarians