Support for Same-Sex Marriage Spiraling Upward

In 1988, the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago added a new question to its annual social survey: "Same-sex couples should be allowed to get married. Do you agree or disagree?"

That first year, only about 12 percent of Americans agreed. But by 2010, that figure had leapt to 46 percent in favor of same-sex marriage compared with 40 percent opposed. It was the first time the number agreeing outpaced the number disagreeing.

On Wednesday, Illinois became the sixth state to offer civil unions or their equivalent to same-sex couples. Observers of the gay and lesbian civil rights movement say the new Illinois law, coupled with statistical and anecdotal evidence of widespread changing attitudes, indicates that the push for full equality will continue -- likely with considerable success.

"It just adds to the sense of inevitable social change," said Andrew Koppelman, a professor of political science and law at Northwestern University. "This has been a spectacularly successful social movement. In about 10 years, they've reached the point where a quarter of the population of the United States lives someplace that at least has civil unions. And that's from nothing."

Recent events in the world of professional basketball demonstrated, to some degree, how attitudes toward gays and lesbians have changed.

Phoenix Suns CEO Rick Welts came out last month, saying he wanted to open up a conversation about the topic of homosexuality in men's team sports. In Chicago, Bulls center Joakim Noah was excoriated -- and fined $50,000 by the league -- for hurling an anti-gay slur toward a fan during a playoff game.

"The mindset that holds that homosexuality is unthinkable is disappearing in American culture," Koppelman said.

The numbers buttress that claim.

Tom Smith, director of the General Social Survey at the National Opinion Research Center, said that in terms of approval of gay marriage, the nearly fourfold increase since 1988 is "one of the biggest changes we've seen in the last 20 years."

Smith also noted that the younger generation has a far more favorable view of gay and lesbian rights than the older generation:

"If you look at 2010 and look at the gay-marriage questions, of those 70 and older, only 12.5 percent agree with gay marriage. Of those under 30, 64 percent agreed with gay marriage. That's an enormous difference."

Still, resistance remains strong. Thirty states have constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage, which some believe erodes the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman.

Geoffrey Stone, a law professor and constitutional scholar at the University of Chicago, said Illinois joining the ranks of states that allow civil unions has to be put in the broader perspective.

"When we think about progress, this is another step," he said. "It is by no means the final step, but it's another step on a path that will eventually take us to a point where we see gay and lesbian individuals as full citizens entitled to the full rights and privileges as everyone else. The question is, how long will it take? It could take 10 years, it could take 50 years."

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