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The CBO didn't break it up into individual vs. group plans. Their point was that private insurance companies would continue to prosper.
I really don't think you trust free enterprise nearly enough. Every company will be free to offer its own plans on the exchanges. I'm certain that insurance companies will find a way to offer products that people prefer. Private plans will be on an equal footing with the so-called public option. They will all have the same requirements and expenses. The public option will not be subsidized by the federal government--it will be entirely financed by its premiums. Like other plans, it will be required to maintain a cash reserve large enough to cover contingencies.
If the public plan is not supported by taxpayers, where do you see their advantage? How will they crowd out all other plans?
Private GROUPS will probably not lose more than 10-20% since folks like the UAW and federal workers aren't going to give up what they've got to go to the public option that they are pushing so hard.
But individual plans will be dead in the water without pre-existing clauses. Picture life-insurance if you can purchase it on your death bed. How long do you think life-insurance companies would last?
Groups are limited by the people in the group, and pre-existing conditions aren't a big problem because if you work for company X you are in their group. Get sick and you can't jump from their group to another group with better benefits. Not true for individual private insurance.