What’s Next for Health Care Reform—Reconciliation?

Blank says the reform bill would help seniors with prescription drug costs by closing the “doughnut hole” gap in coverage, offer affordable long-term care insurance, and stanch the rapidly rising cost of health care. Without reform, he says, one-third of the average Social Security check will soon go to Part B premiums medigap coverage and other out-of-pocket medical costs. “It has quantifiable benefits for seniors,” he says.

But Doane says a cost of the bill will be to slow down the economy. President Obama is pushing for a new Medicare tax on wealthy Americans (individuals earning more than $200,000, and families with more than $250,000.) The new 2.9 percent tax would apply to unearned income like dividends, interest, and rent.

Economic effects disputed

“That’s devastating to the economy,” says Doane of the Heritage Foundation, which estimated that the president’s proposed tax would cost 115,000 jobs a year by slowing investment and productivity.

DeParle says she doesn’t believe the tax on wealthy investors would have a negative effect on the economy. The tax already applies to earnings from jobs. “It’s a basic fairness issue,” she says. “We all have an obligation to contribute.”

Ed Howard, executive vice president of the Alliance for Health Reform, says the sharp differences between the parties on display at the summit may help educate the public. Republicans push for a free market-oriented solution, while Democrats argue for government regulation and subsidies for those who can’t afford insurance. “Maybe the country got educated a little bit over the substance of the bills,” he says.

Whatever happens to reform in the coming weeks, the public will be the ultimate arbiter.

Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee on Monday told Fox News that his party will campaign on repealing whatever health reform Democrats pass: The bill “is going to define every Democratic candidate for every public office in November, and Republicans are going to try to elect the majority who’ll come in here and try to provide a check and a balance to more taxes and more spending and more takeovers.”

Early in last week’s summit, Obama admonished his presidential campaign opponent, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.: “ We’re not campaigning anymore. The campaign is over.”

But by the end of the day, it was clear the campaign is not yet over—at least not the one in November that will determine whether Democrats hold onto their majorities in the House and Senate. Republican Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia has predicted Democrats will lose their House majority if they push the bill through under reconciliation rules.

And Obama closed the summit declaring that if the two parties can’t agree on reform, “that’s what elections are for.”

Tamara Lytle was Washington bureau chief and a correspondent for the Orlando Sentinel from 1997 to 2008.

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