http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic-art/245233/85040/The-greenhouse-effect-on-Earth-Some-incoming-sunlight-is-reflected
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/235402/global-warming
<<<< Earth’s energy budget is further
complicated by the greenhouse effect. Trace gases with certain
chemical properties—the so-called greenhouse gases, mainly
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide
(N2O)—absorb some of the infrared radiation produced by
Earth’s surface. Because of this absorption, some fraction
of the original 70 units does not directly escape to space.
Because greenhouse gases emit the same amount of radiation they
absorb and because this radiation is emitted equally in all
directions (that is, as much downward as upward), the net effect
of absorption by greenhouse gases is to increase the total amount
of radiation emitted downward toward Earth’s surface and
lower atmosphere.
A similar picture is at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:The_green_house_effect.svg
Carbon dioxide, methane, and water
vapour are the most important greenhouse gases. To a lesser extent,
surface-level ozone, nitrous oxides, and fluorinated gases also trap
infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases have a profound effect on the
energy budget of the Earth system despite making up only a fraction
of all atmospheric gases. The greenhouses phenomena is not something
new to science, being first identified by Joseph Fourier in 1824.
The following is from the encyclopedia Britainnica.
--------------
Water vapour is the most potent of the greenhouse
gases in Earth’s atmosphere, but its behaviour is fundamentally
different from that of the other greenhouse gases. The primary role of
water vapour is not as a direct agent of radiative forcing but rather
as a climate feedback—that is, as a response within the climate
system that influences the system’s continued activity. This
distinction arises from the fact that the amount of water vapour in
the atmosphere cannot, in general, be directly modified by human
behaviour but is instead set by air temperatures. The warmer the
surface, the greater the evaporation rate of water from the surface.
As a result, increased evaporation leads to a greater concentration of
water vapour in the lower atmosphere capable of absorbing infrared
radiation and emitting it downward.
-----------------
In
effect, if the atmosphere has reached an equilibrium temperature, by
itself water vapor cannot cause the temperature to change.
Insolation is a measure of solar radiation energy received on a
given surface area in a given time.
Past and future of daily average insolation at top of the atmosphere on the day of the summer solstice, at 65 N latitude. The green curve is with eccentricity e hypothetically set to 0. The red curve uses the actual (predicted) value of e. Blue dot is current conditions, at 2 ky A.D.
Isolation is affected by the eccentricity variations of earths
orbit, precession of the axis of rotation of the earth, and the
obliquity of that axis to the plane of the solar system. The figure
shows that predicted amount of insolation based on the geometrical
relation of the earth with respect to the sun is below the predicted
average and should have been decreasing for the past 10 years. You
would expect that global temperatures would also decrease because the
earth is receiving less energy from the sun.
This figure shows the measured insolation trending down over the
last 30 years and especially during the last sun spot cycle (the 11
year sun spot cycle is clearly visible in the insolation
measurements). Again, you would expect for global temperatures to
decrease as insolation decreased.
The sun spot cycle is not as pronounced in the graph of global temperatures but still discernable. Global temperatures have increased by nearly one degree centigrade over the past century.
Given that insolation has decreased for at least the last 30 years while global temperatures have increased, the conclusion must be that varing insolation is not the cause of increasing temperatures for the last 30 years. Furthermore, insolation has varied over the last hundred years by has exhibited no trend that would explain the increase in global temperatures.
Greenhouse Effect: a warming of the Earth’s surface and
troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere), caused by the
presence of water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and certain other
gases in the air. Of these gases, known as greenhouse gases, water
vapour has the largest effect.
The atmosphere allows most of the visible light from the Sun to
pass through and reach the Earth’s surface. As the Earth’s
surface is heated by sunlight, it radiates part of this energy back
toward space as infrared radiation. This radiation, unlike visible
light, tends to be absorbed by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
raising its temperature. The heated atmosphere in turn radiates
infrared radiation back toward the Earth’s surface. (Despite its
name, the greenhouse effect is different from the warming in a
greenhouse, where panes of glass transmit visible sunlight but hold
heat inside the building by trapping warmed air.)
Without the heating caused by the greenhouse effect, the Earth’s average surface temperature would be only about −18 °C (0 °F). On Venus the very high concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes an extreme greenhouse effect resulting in surface temperatures as high as 450 °C (840 °F). >>>>
Atmospheric Carbon
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/carbon_cycle.php
The amount of carbon taken up by
photosynthesis and released back to the atmosphere by respiration
each year is 1,000
times greater than the amount of
carbon that moves through the geological cycle on an annual basis.
[The geological cycle (operates over millions of years) describes
the subduction of ocean sediment under the continents where it is
heated, releasing carbon dioxide through volcanoes].
The amounts of carbon that move
from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, respiration, and back
to the atmosphere
are large and produce
oscillations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (see
Keeling curve). Over the course
of a year, these biological
fluxes of carbon are over ten times greater than the amount of
carbon introduced to the
atmosphere by fossil fuel burning.
Over periods of years to decades,
significant amounts of carbon can be stored or released on land.
For example, when
forests are cleared for
agriculture the carbon contained in the living material and soil
is released, causing
atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations to increase. When agricultural land is abandoned
and forests are allowed to
re-grow, carbon is stored in the
accumulating living biomass and soils causing atmospheric carbon
dioxide
concentrations to decrease. >>>>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png
Note that carbon dioxide levels stayed below 310 ppm until after the beginning of the industrial revolution.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/carbon_cycle4.php
More to follow.
Not all of the carbon dioxide that has been emitted by human
activities remains in the atmosphere. The oceans have absorbed some of
it because as the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases it drives
diffusion of carbon dioxide into the oceans. However, when we try to
account for sources and sinks for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere we
uncover some mysteries. For example, notice in Figure 1 (schematic of
the carbon cycle) that fossil fuel burning releases roughly 5.5
gigatons of carbon (GtC [giga=1 billion]) per year into the atmosphere
and that land-use changes such as deforestation contribute roughly 1.6
GtC per year. Measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (going
on since 1957) suggest that of the approximate total amount of 7.1 GtC
released per year by human activities, approximately 3.2 GtC remain in
the atmosphere, resulting in an increase in atmospheric carbon
dioxide. In addition, approximately 2 GtC diffuses into the
world’s oceans, thus leaving 1.9 GtC unaccounted for. Several
scenarios could cause the land to take up more carbon dioxide than is
released each year. For example, re-growth of forests since the
massive deforestation in the Northern Hemisphere over the last century
could account for some of the missing carbon while changing climate
could also contribute to greater uptake than release.
NOAA has many satelites that measure various aspects of the earth (e.g., surface temperature, chlorophyll and phytoplankton, solar radiance absorption, fluxes of trace gases at the air-sea interface, changes in land use and ocean primary productivity (rate of carbon fixation from the atmosphere).
Note that the temperature did not start increasing until aftere
1910 or later even though carbon dioxide concentrations had been
increasing since the 1850's or earlier.
http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf
The questions asked in the survey:
This brief report addresses
the two primary
questions of the survey, which contained
up to
nine questions (the full study
is given by Kendall Zimmerman
[2008]):
1. When compared with pre-1800s
levels,
do you
think that mean global temperatures
have generally risen, fallen,
or
remained relatively constant?
2. Do you think human
activity is a significant
contributing factor in changing
mean
global temperatures?
The results:
Read this paper and then tell me if you still think it is rigged.
I suggest the following link as the root link to explore this
question. It contains many links to supporting documentation for the
conclusions stated. There are other pages on this web site that are
also of interest.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11654-climate-myths-many-leading-scientists-question-climate-change.html
Health Reform, Costs, Overviews, Quality
http://www.rwjf.org/healthreform
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
http://www.healthcarereformmyths.org/HealthcareReformMyths.php
Health Care Reform Myths
http://www.kff.org/insurance/7670.cfm
Health Care Costs: A Primer
http://www.nchc.org/facts/quality.shtml
National Coalition on Health Care: Quality
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/349/8/768
New England Journal of Medicine: Administration Costs
http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2009doc.nsf/LinkTo/NT00000B6A/$FILE/JT03259332.PDF
OECD ECO/WKP(2009)6: Health Care Reform in the United States
www.rwjf.org/files/research/101508.policysynthesis.costdrivers.rpt.pdf
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation: High and Rising Health Care Costs
http://www.nchc.org/facts/cost.shtml
National Coalition on Health Care: Health Insurance Costs
http://www.nchc.org/facts/economic.shtml
National Coalition on Health Care: Economic Fact Sheet
http://www.aarp.org/community/NEactuary3/journals
Health Care System Myths
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jun2007/gb20070613_921562.htm
Business Week: Is Europe's Health Care Better?
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ccpe/BrochurePDFsFY09/Forces-WhyWeMustChange.pdf
Harvard School of Public Health: Laying the Groundwork to Bridge Critical Gaps in Health Care
http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL34175_20070917.pdf
Congressional Research Service: U.S. Health Care Spending Vs OECD
http://commerce.senate.gov/public/_files/PotterTestimonyConsumerHealthInsurance.pdf
Wendell Potter Testimony: Senate Committee on Com., Sci & Trans
www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8948/01-31-HealthTestimony.pdf
CBO Director Peter R. Orszag statement to Senate Budget Committee
Comparison of US and other OECD systems
http://www.amsa.org/uhc/IHSprimer.pdf
American Medical Student Association: Description of US and other Systems
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/24/4/903
Comparison of Health Care in US and other developed countries
http://dll.umaine.edu/ble/U.S. HCweb.pdf.
Univ. of Maine: US Health Care; Best or Most Expensive
French Health Care
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1447687
German Health Care
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=91971406
http://open.salon.com/blog/steve_klingaman/2009/07/08/want_health_care_reform_follow_the_germans
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/reprint/13/4/22.pdf
Japanese Health Care
http://www.nyu.edu/projects/rodwin/lessons.html
Canadian Health Care
http://www.tampabay.com/news/health/medicine/article1019355.ece
http://www.alternet.org/healthwellness/76032/10_myths_about_canadian_health_care,_busted/?page=entire
www.pnhp.org/news/2002/may/phantoms_in_the_snow.php
http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_12523427
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/25/4/1133
www.queensu.ca/cora/_files/PublicPerceptions.pdf
www.amsa.org/studytours/CHS_FactSheet.pdf
http://www.harrisi.org/news/newsletters/healthnews/HI_HealthCareNews2008Vol8_Iss6.pdfPublic Opinion on their own health care systems.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/07/27/opinion/main3105523.shtml
Public Plan
http://www.pnhp.org/news/2009/april/statement_of_uwe_e_.php
Comparative Effectiveness / Evidence Based Medicine
http://nihcm.org/~nihcmor/pdf/ExpertV1.pdf
http://content.onlinejacc.org/cgi/content/full/53/12/1084
www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/88xx/doc8891/12-18-ComparativeEffectiveness.pdf
www.allhealth.org/BriefingMaterials/BP_VBCoveragePolicy_11-29-06-1157.pdf
The R word (rationing)
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/06/health-care-rationing-rhetoric.html
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106168331
http://www.businessweek.com/careers/workingparents/blog/archives/2009/06/rationing_healt.html
www.hsph.harvard.edu/benchmark/ndaniels/pdf/justice_health.pdf
http://www.businessweek.com/careers/workingparents/blog/archives/2009/06rationing_healt.html
http://economics.uchicago.edu/Brock_051507.doc
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1733291
http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/full/122/10/795
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1733291
http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/full/122/10/795
www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/cs08.pdf
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/19/magazine/19healthcare-t.html
http://www.scu.edu/ethics/publications/iie/v3n3/age.html
Malpractice and Tort Reform
http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=4968&type=0
http://www.nber.org/aginghealth/fall04/w10709.html
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d03702.pdf
http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/petrie-flom/workshops_conferences/2008_workshops/lakdawalla.pdf.
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/3832032/Malpractice-Liability-and-Medical-Costs
http://insurance-reform.org/issues/index.html
http://insurance-reform.org/issues/MedMalSystemCostsFactSheet2009F.html
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/23/4/33
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/23/4/54
Uninsured
http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ocga/testimony/Americas_Uninsured_Crisis.asp
http://nihcm.org/pdf/Final_Press_Release_-_NIHCM_and_Uninsured_4-25.pdf
http://www.nchc.org/facts/coverage.shtml
http://nihcm.org/pdf/NIHCM-Uninsured-Final.pdf
http://www.factcheck.org/politics/the_real_uninsured.html
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/media/pdf/110/Ayanian.pdf
http://www.ucpress.edu/books/pages/10379/10379.intro.php
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/23/4/223
www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/411588_uninsured_dying.pdf
http://hms.harvard.edu/public/longwood/LS_HCAPacket.pdf
http://rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1355.pdf
http://www.business.bgsu.edu/faculty_staff/hoag/information2006/SGe4-8.pdf
Health care price elasticity
http://rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1355.pdf
http://www.business.bgsu.edu/faculty_staff/hoag/information2006/SGe4-8.pdf
http://www.mathematica-mpr.com/publications/PDFs/priceincome.pdf
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/healthcare.html
Consumer Driven Health Plans (CDHP - HSA's)
Before We Begin
www.hsph.harvard.edu/benchmark/ndaniels/pdf/justice_health.pdf
Justice, Health, and Health Care; Norman Daniels,
Professor of Ethics and Population Health; Harvard University
http://jme.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/26/5/323
Principles of justice in health care rationing
http://www.who.int/hpr/NPH/docs/declaration_almaata.pdf
Declaration of Alma-Ata; World Health Organization
http://www.wku.edu/~jan.garrett/ethics/matrawls.htm
Rawls' Mature Theory of Social Justice
Miscellaneous
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/healthcare.html
Consumer driven health plans (HSA)
http://caimmigrant.org/repository/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/RAND_RB9230.pdf
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106376595&ft=1&f=1001
Undocumented Immigrant Health Care
Myths
Bill will encourage seniors to die.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/medical/euthanasia.asp
http://firebrandblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/cry-wolf.html
Comprehensive Sites
http://www.kff.org
Kaiser Family Foundation
http://www.amsa.org/uhc/uhcres.cfm
American Medical Students Association
http://content.healthaffairs.org/
Health Affairs: the Policy Journal of the Health Sphere
http://www.randcompare.org
Rand Corporation Health Care Perspectives
http://www.analysisonline.org
AnalysisOnline: objective, nonpartisan analysis of issues.
http://www.nchc.org/
National Coalition on Health Care
http://www.commonwealthfund.org
The Commonwealth Fund
http://www.pnhp.org/
Physicians for a National Health Program
Please notify http://www.aarp.org/community/edsilha if any links are broken or duplicated.
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chrissy61 says:
I am a UK national and have been following your debate from where I live in London. I am puzzled at Shevie's comment that his friends in the UK say "they are lucky if they can get to see a doctor before their condition becomes fatal." Really? Now in my 65th year I am pleased to say I am in good shape but when I do need the doctor I can get an appointment the same day. Alright, there is a bit of hanging around on the phone first but then I go down to the surgery at the appointed time. I am treated civilly and take a seat in a pleasant waiting room. I see the GP and I receive the prescription I need. Last time I had to come back and give a blood sample after fasting. No problem, I turned up, gave the blood, the sample is sent off to the lab, the results come back, I get them on the phone or come down the surgery for another chat. I have friends who have had serious conditions. One was diagnosed as being anaemic by his doctor, who was worried. He sent him in for checks right away. It was Christmas but in he went and after various checks they diagnosed cancer of the bowel. Within days he had the operation - a major op, stayed in, recovered enough to come home, received care at home, further checks and so on. This was three or four years ago. He is in his 70s now and is fine. We don't pay anything for this. The treatment is free. The drugs are free although if you are less than 60 and in work you pay a contribution towards them. Everyone can afford it. The system works pretty well I'd say. I don't think that anyone in the UK would want to get rid of the National Health Service.
Just thought I would let you know how we feel about it. Of course we have private medicine too but it seems to offer very little advantage. Perhaps somewhat more comfortable surroundings if you are in hospital and want a private room or whatever but that is about it.
Posted: June 7, 2009 4:06PM EDT to http://bulletin.aarp.org/yourhealth/policy/articles/he06_healthreform.comments.0.html#commentHeading
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2007/tc20070621_716260_page_2.htm
There is no systemized, nationwide collection of data on wait times in the U.S., making it difficultdifficult to compare delays to those in countries with national health systems, who typically track and publish data on wait times. But a 2005 survey conducted by the Commonwealth Fund of sicker adults in six highly industrialized countries found that only Canada was worse than the U.S. when it came to waiting six days or longer to schedule a doctor's appointment for a medical problem. Of the countries surveyed, 81% of patients in New Zealand got a same or next-day appointment for a nonroutine visit, 71% in Britain, 69% in Germany, 66% in Australia, 47% in the U.S., and 36% in Canada. Those lengthy wait times in the U.S. explain why 26% of Americans reported going to an emergency room for a condition that could have been treated by a regular doctor if available, higher than every other country surveyed.
The Commonwealth survey found one area in which the U.S. assumed first place—by a wide margin: 51% of U.S. adults surveyed did not visit a doctor, get a needed test, or fill a prescription within the past two years because of cost. No other country came close to that percentage.
www.pnhp.org/news/2002/may/phantoms_in_the_snow.php
The only other study I know of is titled "Phantoms in the Snow" by Steven J. Katz, Karen Cardiff, Marina Pascali, Morris L. Barer, and Robert G. Evans which can be found on a number of web sites. It is a small studdy but the results indicate that the number of Canadians comming to the US for healthcare is small and that the treatment for many of those is paid for by the Canadian health service, usually because of a short term lack of resources. You will also find web sites "DEBUNKING" this study by claiming it is small. A standard response of deniers is to dismiss the science when it contradicts their ideology. But the study was well designed and can be considered to be a statistical (sampling) study.
If you like to avoid hearsay and want the opinion of a British resident, visit
http://www.aarp.org/community/edsilha/journals/