http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic-art/245233/85040/The-greenhouse-effect-on-Earth-Some-incoming-sunlight-is-reflected
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/235402/global-warming
<<<< Earth’s energy budget is further
complicated by the greenhouse effect. Trace gases with certain
chemical properties—the so-called greenhouse gases, mainly
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide
(N2O)—absorb some of the infrared radiation produced by
Earth’s surface. Because of this absorption, some fraction
of the original 70 units does not directly escape to space.
Because greenhouse gases emit the same amount of radiation they
absorb and because this radiation is emitted equally in all
directions (that is, as much downward as upward), the net effect
of absorption by greenhouse gases is to increase the total amount
of radiation emitted downward toward Earth’s surface and
lower atmosphere.
A similar picture is at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:The_green_house_effect.svg
Carbon dioxide, methane, and water
vapour are the most important greenhouse gases. To a lesser extent,
surface-level ozone, nitrous oxides, and fluorinated gases also trap
infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases have a profound effect on the
energy budget of the Earth system despite making up only a fraction
of all atmospheric gases. The greenhouses phenomena is not something
new to science, being first identified by Joseph Fourier in 1824.
The following is from the encyclopedia Britainnica.
--------------
Water vapour is the most potent of the greenhouse
gases in Earth’s atmosphere, but its behaviour is fundamentally
different from that of the other greenhouse gases. The primary role of
water vapour is not as a direct agent of radiative forcing but rather
as a climate feedback—that is, as a response within the climate
system that influences the system’s continued activity. This
distinction arises from the fact that the amount of water vapour in
the atmosphere cannot, in general, be directly modified by human
behaviour but is instead set by air temperatures. The warmer the
surface, the greater the evaporation rate of water from the surface.
As a result, increased evaporation leads to a greater concentration of
water vapour in the lower atmosphere capable of absorbing infrared
radiation and emitting it downward.
-----------------
In
effect, if the atmosphere has reached an equilibrium temperature, by
itself water vapor cannot cause the temperature to change.
Insolation is a measure of solar radiation energy received on a
given surface area in a given time.
Past and future of daily average insolation at top of the atmosphere
on the day of the summer solstice, at 65 N latitude. The green curve
is with eccentricity e hypothetically set to 0. The red curve uses the
actual (predicted) value of e. Blue dot is current conditions, at 2 ky A.D.
Isolation is affected by the eccentricity variations of earths
orbit, precession of the axis of rotation of the earth, and the
obliquity of that axis to the plane of the solar system. The figure
shows that predicted amount of insolation based on the geometrical
relation of the earth with respect to the sun is below the predicted
average and should have been decreasing for the past 10 years. You
would expect that global temperatures would also decrease because the
earth is receiving less energy from the sun.
This figure shows the measured insolation trending down over the
last 30 years and especially during the last sun spot cycle (the 11
year sun spot cycle is clearly visible in the insolation
measurements). Again, you would expect for global temperatures to
decrease as insolation decreased.
The sun spot cycle is not as pronounced in the graph of global
temperatures but still discernable. Global temperatures have increased
by nearly one degree centigrade over the past century.
Given that insolation has decreased for at least the last 30 years
while global temperatures have increased, the conclusion must be that
varing insolation is not the cause of increasing temperatures for the
last 30 years. Furthermore, insolation has varied over the last
hundred years by has exhibited no trend that would explain the
increase in global temperatures.
Greenhouse Effect: a warming of the Earth’s surface and
troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere), caused by the
presence of water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and certain other
gases in the air. Of these gases, known as greenhouse gases, water
vapour has the largest effect.
The atmosphere allows most of the visible light from the Sun to
pass through and reach the Earth’s surface. As the Earth’s
surface is heated by sunlight, it radiates part of this energy back
toward space as infrared radiation. This radiation, unlike visible
light, tends to be absorbed by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
raising its temperature. The heated atmosphere in turn radiates
infrared radiation back toward the Earth’s surface. (Despite its
name, the greenhouse effect is different from the warming in a
greenhouse, where panes of glass transmit visible sunlight but hold
heat inside the building by trapping warmed air.)
Without the heating caused by the greenhouse effect, the
Earth’s average surface temperature would be only about
−18 °C (0 °F). On Venus the very high concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes an extreme greenhouse effect
resulting in surface temperatures as high as 450 °C (840 °F). >>>>
Atmospheric Carbon
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/carbon_cycle.php
The amount of carbon taken up by
photosynthesis and released back to the atmosphere by respiration
each year is 1,000
times greater than the amount of
carbon that moves through the geological cycle on an annual basis.
[The geological cycle (operates over millions of years) describes
the subduction of ocean sediment under the continents where it is
heated, releasing carbon dioxide through volcanoes].
The amounts of carbon that move
from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, respiration, and back
to the atmosphere
are large and produce
oscillations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (see
Keeling curve). Over the course
of a year, these biological
fluxes of carbon are over ten times greater than the amount of
carbon introduced to the
atmosphere by fossil fuel burning.
Over periods of years to decades,
significant amounts of carbon can be stored or released on land.
For example, when
forests are cleared for
agriculture the carbon contained in the living material and soil
is released, causing
atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations to increase. When agricultural land is abandoned
and forests are allowed to
re-grow, carbon is stored in the
accumulating living biomass and soils causing atmospheric carbon
dioxide
concentrations to decrease. >>>>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png
Note that carbon dioxide levels
stayed below 310 ppm until after the beginning of the
industrial revolution.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/carbon_cycle4.php
More to follow.
Not all of the carbon dioxide that has been emitted by human
activities remains in the atmosphere. The oceans have absorbed some of
it because as the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases it drives
diffusion of carbon dioxide into the oceans. However, when we try to
account for sources and sinks for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere we
uncover some mysteries. For example, notice in Figure 1 (schematic of
the carbon cycle) that fossil fuel burning releases roughly 5.5
gigatons of carbon (GtC [giga=1 billion]) per year into the atmosphere
and that land-use changes such as deforestation contribute roughly 1.6
GtC per year. Measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (going
on since 1957) suggest that of the approximate total amount of 7.1 GtC
released per year by human activities, approximately 3.2 GtC remain in
the atmosphere, resulting in an increase in atmospheric carbon
dioxide. In addition, approximately 2 GtC diffuses into the
world’s oceans, thus leaving 1.9 GtC unaccounted for. Several
scenarios could cause the land to take up more carbon dioxide than is
released each year. For example, re-growth of forests since the
massive deforestation in the Northern Hemisphere over the last century
could account for some of the missing carbon while changing climate
could also contribute to greater uptake than release.
NOAA has many satelites that measure various aspects of the earth
(e.g., surface temperature, chlorophyll and phytoplankton, solar
radiance absorption, fluxes of trace gases at the air-sea interface,
changes in land use and ocean primary productivity (rate of carbon
fixation from the atmosphere).
Note that the temperature did not start increasing until aftere
1910 or later even though carbon dioxide concentrations had been
increasing since the 1850's or earlier.
http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf
The questions asked in the survey:
This brief report addresses
the two primary
questions of the survey, which contained
up to
nine questions (the full study
is given by Kendall Zimmerman
[2008]):
1. When compared with pre-1800s
levels,
do you
think that mean global temperatures
have generally risen, fallen,
or
remained relatively constant?
2. Do you think human
activity is a significant
contributing factor in changing
mean
global temperatures?
The results:
Read this paper and then tell me if you still think it is rigged.
I suggest the following link as the root link to explore this
question. It contains many links to supporting documentation for the
conclusions stated. There are other pages on this web site that are
also of interest.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11654-climate-myths-many-leading-scientists-question-climate-change.html