Crunching Numbers and the Dream Job

Market analyses, ratios, percentages, and balance sheets--welcome to "crunching numbers." Most business ideas are hatched in exalted, unhinged moments. They ignite like falling stars, burn brilliantly, and disappear. The few that survive go through a different kind of death. They’re reduced to digits and absorbed into formulas in order to predict the future. This process is called "number crunching."

Businessmen enjoy this process because, theoretically, crunching enables them to predict whether or not a business will succeed. Basically it’s a numeral ballet of plus and minus. If the plus/profit is larger than the minus/loss you’re in business. Simple, right, you enter numbers into a calculator, load them into various predictors, and out comes the prognosis. If it makes money it’s a go, if not, it’s a no. But sometimes the outcome is not so clear. For instance, what happens if you invest lots of money and at year’s end the business only produces a fifty cent profit? What if after you open your business, a competitor produces a new, improved version of your widget at a lower price? It is important to go through the process, to do your due diligence. However, even though crunching numbers tells you a lot, there’s a lot it can’t tell you.

I recently put together a business plan for my project (showing independent films in a small Mississippi town). After days of challenging calculation, I found the theater would lose $40,000 in the first year. Not that great, especially when you consider total sales were $75.000. But the numbers were based on an eighty-seat theater averaging 23 customers per show. So I ran some more optimistic numbers. At forty customers per show we lost about $8,000 a year and at sixty customers we made $3,000. I’m not sure the theater could maintain the last figure, but if it did the profit plus our salaries would bring in around $20,000 a year, meaning either my wife or I would need another full time job. Given the difficulty of opening and running a business the logical question would be is it worth it?

The numbers suggest not, but there are a few things to consider. First, there are changes we can make to increase profits, like adding seats to the theater, scheduling private parties and screenings, and serving light meals and beer or wine. Second, despite the value of planning, experience suggests no one really knows what works. Many failed businesses passed the numbers test with flying colors, and many successful businesses failed. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, my wife and I are determined to create a job we’ll enjoy, our "dream job." Of course, this is tricky. Simply wanting something to happen doesn’t make it happen. Or does it? What about those irrepressible sniff fests Hollywood loves to produce, the ones where underdogs beat impossible odds--Rocky, Invincible, Freedom Writers, It’s a Wonderful Life?

Why do audiences flock to these movies? Because they say something audiences understand and want to believe. It won’t be a business plan or number crunching that makes our theater successful. It will be the enthusiasm for movies and movie theaters we share with our customers and co-workers. Ultimately, though not quantifiable or crunchable, businesses succeed because of the "dream" that brings them to life.