The New Old World: Challenges and Opportunities of Aging Populations

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William D. Novelli
Executive Director and CEO
AARP

Good morning and welcome to this important program – looking at the challenges and opportunities of aging populations. I thank you all for coming, and I want to thank our speakers for sharing their thoughts with us.

I especially want to thank Lee Hamilton, President and Director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, for his leadership and commitment to highlighting the importance of global aging.

E.M. Forster called aging that "seductive combination of increased wisdom and decaying powers to which too little intelligence is devoted." By joining with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars to sponsor this conference – and inviting all of you here to participate – we hope to remedy that.

This is the first of three programs we are convening jointly with the Woodrow Wilson Center: In July, we will explore the Politics of Aging, and we will meet again in November to examine international experiences in pension reform.

When I became CEO of AARP almost two years ago, I set forth three great goals worthy of our Association:

• To be one of the most successful organizations in America for positive social change.
• To help our members have choices, reach their goals and dreams, and make the most of life after 50.
• And to be a world leader in global aging.

The first two goals were met with great enthusiasm, but the third one raised more than a few eyebrows. AARP has been involved in international aging issues for a long time. In fact, our founder, Dr. Ethel Percy Andrus, was a dedicated internationalist.

But, by elevating international aging issues to one of our three goals, many felt I was taking our commitment to a new level. And, I am.

And for good reason. One hundred years ago, the average person in the United States could expect to live to the age of 47. Today, the average life span is 30 years longer.

This "longevity bonus" is now occurring in most parts of the world. Indeed, increased longevity was one of the great success stories of the 20th century, due to the eradication of childhood diseases and improvements in public health, diet and standards of living.

Thanks to the "longevity bonus," the number of older people is increasing rapidly. The older population is increasing much faster than other age groups in the G-7 and other industrialized countries, making it a larger share of the population.

In the US, this trend will accelerate with the baby boomer generation turning 65 – beginning just 8 years from now in 2011. But, trends in fertility and immigration – which differ greatly among countries – also factor heavily into this. In Japan and Italy, for example, low fertility is actually decreasing the numbers as well as the share of younger people.

Worldwide, the number of people aged 65-84 is projected to grow threefold by the year 2050. And some demographers tell us that, by then, older people will outnumber children for the first time in history. This is the demographic seismic shift that we call Global Aging. We can see it now, before our eyes.

We at AARP are focused on global aging issues because they will affect nearly every sector of public life: our economies, our politics, our health care, our infrastructures – such as transportation and housing – our social involvement in virtually every way. So global aging is a priority issue that needs the attention of governments, academe, business, non-profits and the public.

Even though the future is here… or almost here, policymakers in many countries are still reluctant to address some of the challenges posed by population aging. But others are enacting changes and cutting back on levels of social spending, health care, pensions and in some cases even the special needs of older people.

Many have yet to recognize that global aging actually presents an opportunity to the economy. The 50-plus population of the world is both a production power as an employee force and a purchasing power as a consumer force. If we seize the opportunity now, these forces combined can yield economic growth…not the stagnation that some predict.

While there are certainly differences among nations, the reality is that we're all wrestling with the same aging issues in slightly different ways and at different times.

In the United States, Social Security expenditures will eventually exceed income and adjustments to the system must be made. No one is eager to raise taxes or cut benefits. But the longer we wait, the more painful the options will be.

The same can be said about reforms to other systems, such as health care. An adequate supply of well-trained health-care professionals to care for aged baby boomers with multiple chronic illnesses cannot be accomplished overnight. We can't put off dealing with these issues much longer, neither here in the United States nor in Europe, Canada, Japan, or elsewhere.

Governments must address the sustainability of pension and health-care systems with more older people and fewer workers to support the public systems. Age discrimination and opportunities for continued work are also priorities to be addressed through policy and social change.

We need to move beyond the doomsday predictions about aging societies and consider the opportunities of aging. And, that's a role we're taking on at AARP. We believe that many opportunities exist, and that countries have much to teach and learn from one another as we share experiences with aging issues in the workplace, in health care, in pension systems and in other areas.

Our mission at AARP is to improve life for people as they get older – both at home and abroad – so they can live long, healthy, secure and productive lives. To do this, we are reaching beyond our borders to engage leaders in other countries to address policy challenges…and to help find solutions.

As one example, the American experience with age discrimination legislation is relevant today for the EU, as member states must implement such laws by 2006. The U.S. is one of a handful of countries with age discrimination legislation, and so AARP is assisting on how to develop and implement such legislation.

Conversely, in the U.S. we are grappling with long-term care needs. In this area, we hope to learn from other countries to address our domestic challenge. In October, we will be sponsoring an International Forum on Long-term Care where health ministers and others from Australia, Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Japan and Denmark will discuss options for long-term care delivery and financing.

We don't want to minimize the challenges that all countries face with people living longer and slow-growing or even shrinking numbers of workers. But, we also know that demography is not destiny. Aging populations, as mere numbers, do not threaten world stability.

The increased longevity of our population has been called "the true wealth of nations." As employers, workers, governments and others learn to capitalize on this "wealth," they will contribute to world economies and societies through measured and responsible reform.

So, aging populations offer opportunities, as well as challenges. And, by elevating AARP's international goal to become a leader in global aging, we are increasing our commitment to tackle both.

So, let's get started. I would like to ask Nancy LeaMond, the Director of AARP's Office of International Affairs, to introduce our guest speakers.